兰德公司涉华报告中灰色文献的引述态度评价性研究——以《大国战争的回归》报告为例

On the Citation Attitude of Grey Literature in RAND's China-Related Reports:A Case Study of the Return of Great Power War Report

[研究目的]研究兰德公司涉华报告中灰色文献引述态度,揭露兰德公司的态度和立场以及态度立场的附加方式,为我国开源情报寻找新方法。[研究方法]构建灰色文献引述评价性分析情报流程,从系统功能语言学视角出发,以兰德公司2022年8月发布的《大国战争的回归》报告为例,通过典型例句质性分析方法和运用UAM Corpus Tool软件量化统计分析方法对报告中引述灰色文献的态度立场进行研究。[研究结论]兰德公司对中国在可能出现的中美冲突中的反应持消极态度,且引用灰色文献话语介入报告时附加了兰德公司自身的立场观点。其通过报告话语诱导决策者实施对中国的消极政策,为美国决策者精准制衡中国提供了重要参考。

[Research purpose] The study exposes RAND's specific attitude and position and their attaching ways by studying the attitude towards grey literature citation,in order to seek new methods for China's open source intelligence.[Research method] Constructing the intelligence flow of evaluative analysis of grey literature citation,based on the Systemic Functional Linguistic research paradigm,it studied the attitudinal stance of the grey literature cited in the report The Return of Great Power War using the method of qualitative analysis of typical example sentences and conducted a quantitative statistical analysis with the help of the UAM Corpus Tool software.[Research conclusion] RAND corporation has a negative attitude towards China's response in the potential conflict between the U.S.and China,and when citing grey literature discourse to intervene in the report,it added its own position and views.Through the discourse of the report,it induces policymakers to implement negative policies toward China,providing important reference for American policymakers to balance China accurately.