基于双重失衡环境的网络舆情演化机理与治理策略研究

Research on the Evolution Mechanism and Governance Strategy of Online Public Opinion Based on Double Imbalance Environment

[研究目的]网络信息的快捷性、非理性加剧了网络舆情生态的失衡与恶性发展。厘清网络舆情传播的影响因素和动态演化机理,为辅助政府相关部门防范化解舆情风险提供理论依据。[研究方法]基于信息生态视角,通过分析信息、信息人和信息环境三要素,将舆情系统划分为事件、网民、媒体和政府子系统,构建信息供需、情绪态势双重失衡环境下的系统动力学舆情演化模型,并利用Vensim PLE软件进行模拟仿真。[研究结论]结果表明:事件、网民、媒体和政府四个作用主体与网络舆情风险存在相互作用关系,在双重失衡环境下事件危害程度、网络媒体的涉利程度、网民参与约束、意见领袖作用、政府信息公开程度等因素对网络舆情风险影响程度较大。最后,从网民主体信息溯源、形成心理震慑效应、发挥主流媒体影响力、抨击处罚恶意营销媒体、强化网民媒体自我约束、加大问责监管力度防范化解舆情危机,为网络舆情治理提供一定参考。

[Research purpose]The rapidity and irrationality of network information has exacerbated the imbalance and malignant development of the network public opinion ecology.The influencing factors and dynamic evolution mechanism of online public opinion transmission are clarified to provide theoretical basis for assisting relevant government departments to prevent and resolve public opinion risks.[Research method] Based on the perspective of information ecology,the public opinion system is divided into four subsystems of events,netizens,media and government by analyzing the three elements of information,information person and information environment.The public opinion evolution model of system dynamics is constructed under the double imbalance of information supply and demand and emotional situation,and Vensim PLE software is used for simulation.[Research conclusion] The results show that there is an interaction relationship between network public opinion risk and four main bodies,such as the events,the internet,media and government.Under the double imbalance environment,event damage degree of wade,network media,internet users participation constraint,opinion leader role,degree of government information publicity have a great influence on the risk of network public opinion.Finally,the paper put forward countermeasures to prevent and resolve the public opinion crisis,from tracing the source of the main information of the internet users,forming the psychological deterrent effect,giving play to the influence of the mainstream media,attacking and punching the malicious marketing media,strengthening the self-restraint of the internet media,and strengthening the accountability supervision to,in order to provide some reference for the management of online public opinions.