地方政府债务治理对城市创新的影响研究——基于新《预算法》实施的经验证据

Research on the impact of local government debt governance on urban innovation:based on empirical evidence of the implementation of the new Budget Law

基于2010—2019年地级市—专利层面的匹配数据,利用2015年新《预算法》的实施作为政策外生冲击,采用双重差分模型,研究地方政府债务规范管理对城市创新的影响。研究发现:地方政府债务的规范管理显著促进了城市创新水平。平行趋势检验结果表明处理组和对照组在政策冲击前满足平行趋势,说明了基准回归结果的可信性。安慰剂检验的结果表明对城市创新水平的影响是由2015年新《预算法》实施所带来的。最后通过机制检验分析发现,地方政府债务规范管理后,会通过土地出让和城市投资的增加两条路径对城市创新产生激励作用,因此需要加强地方政府债务的规范管理,并优化土地审批权限,营造良好的创新创造氛围。

Based on the matching data at the prefecture-level city-patent level from 2010 to 2019,this paper takes the implementation of the new Budget Law in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment,constructs an intensity double-difference model,and studies the impact of local government debt limit management on urban innovation.Benchmark regression shows that the limit management of local debt significantly promotes urban innovation.The parallel trend test results show that before the implementation of the new"Budget Law",the control group and the treatment group meet the common trend assumption,and after the implementation of the new"Budget Law",the local debt limit management has a sustained impact on promoting urban innovation.The results of the placebo test showed that the policy was indeed brought about by the implementation of the new Budget Law in 2015.Finally,through the mechanism test and analysis,this paper finds that the governance of local government debt has an incentive effect on urban innovation through the expansion of land transfer and the increase of urban investment.This paper provides some experience and reference for improving urban debt management in the new era.