世界经济复苏道路崎岖不平下行压力持续存在--2022年世界经济形势分析及2023年展望

The road to world economic recovery is bumpy and downward pressure persists--Analysis of the world economic situation in 2022 and outlook for 2023

2022年,高通胀和高利率冲击全球经济活动,强紧缩货币政策对全球经济的影响逐步显现。据国际货币基金组织的数据,世界经济增速从2021年的6.2%回落至3.4%。主要经济领域方面,需求不足导致全球货物贸易数量和金额齐跌,制造业、服务业快速收缩,国际金融市场避险情绪强烈。主要经济体方面,美国、欧元区经济颓势渐显,日本经济缓慢修复,新兴经济体增长分化。展望2023年,IMF指出,紧缩的货币政策效果初步显现,全球通胀水平有望继续小幅回落,世界经济前景略有改善。虽然主要经济体经济表现出一定韧性,通胀预期有所下降,但距离央行目标水平尚有距离,未来仍需在抑制通胀与经济“软着陆”中艰难寻求平衡,金融环境依旧脆弱。叠加极端自然灾害、地缘局势动荡和劳动力市场持续紧张等负面因素,总体风险仍然趋于下行,预计2023年世界经济增速进一步回落至2.9%,处于历史相对低位。

In 2022, high inflation and high interest rates will impact global economic activities, and the impact of strong monetary tightening on the global economy will gradually emerge, according to the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the growth rate of the world economy will fall from 6.2% in 2021 to 3.4%. In terms of major economic fields, insufficient demand has led to a decline in the volume and value of global trade in goods, rapid contraction in the manufacturing and service industries, and strong risk aversion in the international financial market. In terms of major economies, the economic decline of the United States and the Eurozone is gradually becoming apparent, the Japanese economy is slowly recovering, and the growth of emerging economies is divergent. Looking forward to 2023, the IMF pointed out that the effect of the tightening monetary policy has initially appeared, the global inflation level is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the world economic outlook will improve slightly. Although the economies of the major economies have shown some resilience and inflation expectations have declined, they are still far from the central bank ’s target level, in the future, it is still difficult to find a balance between curbing inflation and the “soft landing” of the economy, and the financial environment is still fragile. Combined with negative factors such as extreme natural disasters, geopolitical turmoil, and continued labor market tensions, the overall risk is still trending downward, and it is expected that the world economic growth rate will further fall to 2.9% in 2023, which is relatively low in history.