中国农村居民消费模式变迁研究--基于EASI模型的结构计量分析

A Study on the Change of Consumption Pattern of China’s Rural Residents--Structural Econometric Analysis Based on EASI Model

促进消费扩张是推进国内经济内生增长和保障民生发展的战略要点,对农村居民消费模式的探讨成为学界和政界共同关注的重点问题。本文采用中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)2002年、2007年和2013年的微观家户数据,构建精确的仿射斯通指数隐式马氏需求系统(EASI)模型对中国农村居民消费行为进行结构计量分析。(1)中国农村居民消费水平整体提高,地区差距由“东—中—西”三级阶梯状转向“东—中西”两极分化的态势,中西部地区农村居民消费潜力有待释放。(2)中国农村居民各项生活消费的恩格尔曲线基本呈现“S形”等复杂形式,市场价格、居民收入水平以及家庭特征都会对居民消费行为产生显著影响。(3)中国农村居民消费模式有向“发展享受型”转变的趋势。中国农村居民的家庭用品、文教娱乐、其他等发展享受型消费易受自身价格影响,而其他消费项目价格的影响较小;食品和衣着的支出弹性小于1,为生活必需品,家庭用品、文教娱乐、医疗保健和其他等发展享受型消费的支出弹性大于1,且逐年增大。(4)不同特征家庭间消费模式异质性明显。不同特征的农村居民家庭在食品、衣着、居住和家庭用品消费上差异不大,其消费模式差异主要体现在交通通信、文教娱乐和医疗保健等消费上。本文研究为引导农村消费、调整产业结构、实现经济平稳较快发展等国家宏观政策的制定奠定了微观实证基础。

Promoting consumption expansion is the strategic point to promote the endogenous growth of domestic economy and ensure the development of people’s livelihood.The discussion on the consumption pattern of rural residents has become the focus of academic circles and political circles.This paper uses the micro household data of China Household Income Survey(CHIP)in 2002,2007 and 2013,and constructs the Exact Affine Stone Index Implicit Marshallian Demand System(EASI)model to analysis the consumption pattern of China’s rural residents.(1)The overall consumption level of China’s rural residents has improved,and the regional gap is shifting from the three-step pattern of“East-Central-West”to the polarization trend of“East-Central and Western”.The consumption potential of rural residents in the central and western regions is to be released.(2)The Engel curve of China’s rural residents’living consumption basically presents a complex form such as“S shape”.Market price,residents’income level and household characteristics all have significant impact on households’consumption behavior.(3)The consumption pattern of rural residents in China has a tendency to change to the“development-enjoying type”.The development-enjoying consumption items of China’s rural residents,such as household goods,culture,education and entertainment,and other goods and services,are easily affected by their own prices,while other prices have little influence.Food and clothing,with a spending elasticity of less than 1,are necessities of life.The elasticity of spending on household goods,culture,education,entertainment,medical care and others are greater than 1 and increase year by year.(4)The heterogeneity of household consumption patterns with different characteristics is obvious.Rural households with different characteristics have little difference in the consumption of food,clothing,housing and household good,and their consumption pattern differences mainly reflects in the consumption of transportation,communication,culture,education,entertainment and medical care.This study provides a micro empirical basis for the formulation of national macro policies,such as stimulating rural consumption,adjusting industrial structure,and realizing steady and rapid economic development.