基于统计学特征的新能源消纳平衡模型及灵敏度分析

Renewable energy consumption balance model and sensitivity analysis based on statistical characteristics

在碳达峰、碳中和背景下,新能源将快速发展,掌握消纳机理、量化消纳措施以及科学制定消纳目标,关系到新能源的健康发展和高效利用。研究含高占比新能源电力系统的平衡机理,从新能源统计学规律中提炼出消纳曲线,进而推导出新能源利用率和新能源发电占比的解析式;分析新能源利用率、新能源发电占比对电网备用率、负荷率、常规电源调峰率、新能源资源系数、新能源穿透率的灵敏度,揭示消纳措施对消纳目标的作用机理和规律;基于统计学规律建立新能源消纳的测算模型和回算模型。基于西北电网实际运行数据进行量化分析,结果表明,所提模型和方法可以揭示新能源消纳的规律,为新能源装机规划、消纳措施量化、消纳效果评价提供理论依据和工程指导。

Renewable energy will develop quickly under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,it related to healthy development and high-efficiency utilization of renewable energy of grasping the consump⁃tion mechanism,qualifying consumption measure and scientifically making consumption target.The balance mechanism of power system with high-penetration renewable energy is researched,the consumption curve is extracted from statistical rules of renewable energy,the analytical expression of renewable energy utilization rate and renewable energy generation proportion are further derived.The sensitivity degrees of renewable energy utilization rate and renewable energy generation proportion to power grid reserve rate,load rate,peak shaving rate of conventional units,renewable energy resource coefficient,renewable energy penetration rate are analyzed,which reveals the impact mechanism and rule of consumption measure on consumption target.The planning model and back-tracking model for renewable energy consumption are built based on statistical rules.The quantitative analysis based on practical operation data of Northwest China Power Grid is carried out,and the results show that the proposed model and method can reveal the rule of renewable energy con⁃sumption,providing theoretical basis and engineering guide for capacity planning,consumption measure quanti⁃fication,consumption effect evaluation of renewable energy.