工业高质量转型绩效的空间分布特征及演进趋势

Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Evolutionary Trend of Industrial High-quality Transformation Performance

文章基于五个维度构建工业高质量转型绩效评价指标体系,分析中国30个省份2008—2019年工业高质量转型绩效的地区异质性、空间集聚程度和分布演进规律。结果表明:(1)工业高质量转型绩效存在着显著的空间非均衡特征,表现为东部>中部>西部。造成工业高质量发展总体差异的第一来源为区域间差异,其次为区域内差异,超变密度的影响相对较小。(2)工业高质量转型绩效分布表现出显著的正向空间集聚特征,且集聚模式逐渐从以低低-低效型集聚为主向以高高-高效型集聚为主转变。高高-高效型集聚主要分布在环渤海和长三角地区以及中部地区部分省份,低低-低效型集聚主要分布在西部和东北地区。(3)东部、西部地区和全国整体的工业高质量转型绩效的空间差异呈发散趋势,而中部地区的空间差异呈收敛趋势。考虑空间滞后的影响时,邻接省份的高水平会提高本省向上转移的概率,而邻接省份的低水平则会提高本省向下转移的概率。

This paper constructs the evaluation index system of industrial high-quality transformation performance from five dimensions,and analyzes the regional heterogeneity,spatial agglomeration and distribution evolution of the performance in 30 provinces of China from 2008 to 2019.The results go as below:(1)There is a significant spatial disequilibrium in the performance of industrial high-quality transformation,which is shown as the east>the central>the west.The first source contributing to the overall disparity in industrial quality development is inter-regional disparity,followed by intra-regional disparity,with the least impact of intensity of transvariation.(2)The performance distribution of industrial high-quality transformation shows a significant and positive spatial agglomeration,and the agglomeration pattern gradually changes from“low-low”inefficient agglomeration to“high-high”efficient agglomeration.The“high-high”efficient agglomeration is mainly distributed in the Bohai Rim,Yangtze River Delta and some provinces in central China,and the“low-low”inefficient agglomeration is mainly distributed in the western and northeastern regions.(3)The spatial difference of industrial high-quality transformation performance in the east,the west and the whole country shows a divergent trend,while the spatial differences in the central region show a convergent trend.Considering the spatial lag impact,the high level of neighboring provinces will increase the probability of upward migration of the province,while the low level will increase the probability of downward transfer of the province.