基层政府如何驱动预算绩效管理改革?——基于38个县级政府的定性比较分析

How Can Grassroots Governments Drive Budget Performance Management Reform?A Qualitative Comparative Aanalysis Based on 38 County Governments

2022年年底,县级政府需要基本建成全方位、全过程、全覆盖的“三全”预算绩效管理体系。如何有效驱动县级政府预算绩效管理改革是实践界和学术界共同关注的问题。笔者基于TOE模型建立了基层政府预算绩效管理改革影响因素研究框架,运用定性比较分析,选取38个县级政府,探究技术、组织和环境因素驱动县级政府预算绩效管理改革产生良好成效的组合路径。研究发现:(1)单一因素并不能构成良好改革成效产生的必要条件;(2)“组织-环境驱动型”和“技术-环境驱动型”两种组合路径都能产生良好的改革成效,呈现了“殊途同归”的特征;(3)环境因素在两条组合路径中都发挥了重要支撑作用,组织因素与技术因素之间在一定程度上具有替代关系。

By the end of 2022,county governments need to complete a“all round,whole process,full coverage”budget performance management system.How to effectively drive the budget performance management reform of county-level government is the focus of practice and academia.Based on the TOE model,this paper establishes a framework for studying the factors influencing budget performance management reform in grassroots governments,and uses QCA to explore the combined paths of technical,organizational,and environmental factors that drive good results of the reform by selecting 38 county-level governments.The study finds that:(1)a single factor does not constitute a necessary condition for producing higher reform performance;(2)two combined paths of“organization-environment”and“technology-environment”can both produce good reform results,showing the characteristics of“all paths to the same destination”;(3)environmental factors play an important role in both combination paths,and there are alternative relationships between organizational factors and technological factors to some extent.