动物精神、认知能力与投资者行为

Animal Spirit,Cognitive Ability and Investor Behavior

投资者的动物精神被认为是导致市场波动和金融泡沫的重要原因。本研究围绕动物精神对三个层次的重要问题展开研究:一是作为非理性程度总体度量的动物精神是否像认知能力一样存在显著的个体差异及是否与具体的非理性行为具有一致性;二是体现理性决策能力差异的动物精神与体现个体基本思维能力差异的认知能力是否存在相关性;三是个体动物精神的差异是否对实际的股票投资行为和结果的差异具有解释力。本文基于深圳证券交易所个人投资者行为调查数据,对大样本真实个人投资者的动物精神、认知能力和投资行为进行测度和分析。研究发现:投资者群体中存在动物精神的显著差异,且多种个别的非理性行为度量值呈现明显的一致性;认知能力越高的个体呈现越低的动物精神倾向;个体动物精神的差异对投资行为差异具有显著的解释力。

Animal spirit is widely believed as a fundamental cause of financial market fluctuation and asset bubbles.We investigate three aspects of issues concerning animal spirit:First,we define animal spirit as the measure of an individual s overall irrational level.We test whether there exists significant heterogeneity of animal spirit and whether an individual s specific irrational behaviors are consistent with each other.Second,we study whether the individual differences in animal spirit are related to the differences in cognitive ability.Third,whether the differences in animal spirit can predict real stock trading behaviors and the final performance?We measure cognitive ability,animal spirit,and stock trading behaviors and investigate their interactions with a large sample of real Chinese investors based on survey data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.We find significant heterogeneity of the measured animal spirit among the sample,and several specific measures of irrational behaviors are consistent with each other.Individuals with higher cognitive ability levels showed significantly lower animal spirit.The differences in animal spirit are good predictors of stock trading behaviors.