应对海平面上升问题的城市土地利用格局脆弱性多情景模拟评估及应对策略

Multi-scenario Simulation Assessment of Landuse Pattern Vulnerability and Coping Strategies in Response to Sea Level Rise

全球气候变化引发的海平面上升对沿海区域的环境和社会经济发展造成巨大破坏。以珠三角广州南沙为研究区域,基于传统、自然增长和规划控制3种土地利用格局预设发展情景,采用PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)模型模拟各情景下的未来土地利用格局。同时,针对近期(2030年)、中期(2050年)和远期(2100年)3种不同海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险下的土地利用格局脆弱性开展多情景定量化评估,并提出应对策略。结果显示:1)3种土地利用格局发展情景中,传统格局情景能够最有效地应对或缓解海平面上升和风暴潮灾害风险,而自然增长情景应对未来海岸灾害的能力最弱;2)从不同土地利用类型的脆弱性程度来看,城镇建设用地的综合脆弱性最高,而村庄建设用地的综合脆弱性最低;3)根据不同发展情景及灾害风险应采用综合防御、适应及撤退等多种应对策略。综合考虑了未来土地利用格局的多种变化情景、灾害风险及应对策略,能够为滨海城市应对未来海岸灾害的适应性规划提供决策参考。

The rise of sea level caused by global climate change has great impact on the environment and social and economic development of coastal areas.Taking Nansha District,Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta as the research area,the PLUS(Patchgenerating Land Use Simulation Model)model was used to simulate the future land-use pattern based on the assumptions of three land-use pattern development scenarios:traditional,natural,and planning-control.At the same time,coping strategies were proposed according to multi-scenario quantitative assessment of land-use pattern vulnerability under three different sea-level rises combined with storm surge risks:the short-term(2030),the medium-term(2050)and the long-term(2100).The results show that:1)Among the three land-use pattern development scenarios,the traditional pattern scenario was the most effective in coping with or mitigating the risk of sea level rise and storm surge disaster,while the natural development scenario with low control had the weakest ability to cope with future coastal disasters.2)From the perspective of the vulnerability degree of different land-use types,the vulnerability of urban construction land was the highest,and rural construction land was the lowest.3)According to different development scenarios and disaster risks,various coping strategies such as defense,adaptation and retreat should be integrated.This study considered multiple scenarios of future land-use pattern changes,disaster risks and response strategies,which can provide a reference for coastal city's suitability planning to cope with future coastal disasters.