东盟国家对“印太经济框架”的认知与反应——基于经济预期与威胁认知的解释

Perceptions and Reactions of ASEAN Countries to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework(IPEF)-Explanations Based on Economic Expectations and Threat Perceptions

拜登政府推出“印太经济框架”后引发东盟高度关注,但东盟各国的反应却存在明显差异。经济预期和威胁认知是影响东盟国家对“印太经济框架”认知差异的两个重要变量。经济预期直接塑造了国家的经济决策偏好,威胁认知则会影响国家外交政策行为的倾向,两者共同决定了东盟国家加入或拒绝加入“印太经济框架”背后的行为逻辑。具体而言,新加坡、越南、菲律宾对“印太经济框架”持积极的经济预期,且对华威胁认知均比较强烈,因而坚定加入该框架;印尼、泰国都谨慎加入“印太经济框架”,但前者持比较消极的经济预期、对华威胁认知趋强且在一定限度内,而后者则持比较积极的经济预期且对华威胁认知较弱;柬埔寨对“印太经济框架”持消极的经济预期且对华威胁认知很弱,因而拒绝加入该框架。东盟国家对“印太经济框架”的差异化反应会在一定程度上影响和干扰中国与东盟的合作,中国有必要对东盟各国的态度立场加以辨别,诉诸精细化的应对策略。

The“Indo-Pacific economic framework”launched by Biden administration has aroused the concem of ASEAN.However,there are obvious divergence of ASEAN mem-bers on IPEF.Economic expectations and threat perceptions are two important variables that affect the divergence in ASEAN counties'perceptions of PEF.Economic expectations di-rectly shape a country's economic decision-making preferences,while threat perception will affect the tendency of a country's foreign policy behavior.These two variables determine the behavioral logic behind ASEAN counties'joining or rejecting the IPEF.Through case stud-ies,it is found that Singapore,Vietnam and the Philippines hold positive economic expecta-tions for PEF and have a strong awareness of threats to China,and they fimly join IPEF.Although Indonesia and Thailand have cautiously,joined IPEF,the former holds a relatively negative economic expectation and a stronger awareness of the threat to China within a cer tain limit,while the latter bolds a more positive economic expectation and a weaker aware-ness of the threat to China.Because of negative economic expectations for PEF and a weak awareness of the threat to China,Cambodia refuses to join in IPEF.The cogmitive divergence of ASEAN members on PEF will afecet and itefe with the urity and copenton between China and ASEAN to a certain extent.It is necessary for Chima to distinguish the atudes and positions of ASEAN countis and then takc rlevant countemeasures.