美俄金融制裁与反制裁之间的拉锯和对弈--理解金融反制裁的非对称性

The Gaming and Implications of U.S.-Russia Financial Sanctions and Countersanctions--Understanding the Asymmetry of Financial Countersanctions

2022年俄乌冲突升级后,美国联合西方国家对俄罗斯诉诸史无前例的大规模、多层次的金融制裁。美对俄金融制裁的法律体系和执行机制较完备:国会通过了五部关于俄罗斯的制裁法案,总统针对俄局势变化迅速发布行政命令,海外资产控制办公室管理和执行两个涉俄制裁项目,发布制裁条例,更新制裁名单,从事执法活动。俄罗斯采取了一系列反制裁措施,核心要素有三:经济的安全化、关键部门产品技术的本土化和对外经济关系的多元化。俄反制裁措施主要包括限制金融交易、外国资产国有化和阻断制裁的域外效力。美俄金融制裁与反制裁拉锯具有非对称性:第一,受制于金融实力,俄反制裁措施难与美国抗衡。第二,俄试图以能源权力撬动美国金融权力,形成非对称对弈的格局。美俄金融制裁拉锯给中国的启示是:第一,完善反制裁措施法治体系;第二,加快人民币国际化并推动去美元化进程;第三,深化国际经贸、金融联系。

As Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates in 2022,the Western countries led by the U.S.have imposed unprecedented financial sanctions against Russia at large scale and multiple levels.The U.S.has well established the legal framework and implementation mechanism of financial sanctions against Russia.The Congress has passed five Russia-related sanctions Acts.The U.S.presidents have issued Executive Orders in response to the volatile situations.The U.S.Office of Foreign Assets Control(OFAC)manages and implements two sanctions programs in relation to Russia,makes sanctions regulations,updates sanctions lists and enforces the law.In response,Russia has taken a series of countersanctions,with three central factors:economic securitization,Russification of key sectors and diversification of foreign economic relations.Russia’s countermeasures include financial transactions restraints,foreign assets nationalization and sanctions compliance blocking.The confrontation between the U.S.financial sanctions and Russia’s countersanctions is asymmetric in two ways.On the one hand,Russia’s financial powers makes a tit-for-tat countersanctions strategy hard to be deployed.On the other,Russia seeks to leverage its energy powers as a counterweight to U.S.financial powers.The suggestions for China include improvement on the countersanction legal system,acceleration of RMB internationalization and de-dollarization process,and strengthening of international economic and financial ties.