基于LCA+DEA方法的玉米种植效率与温室气体减排潜力研究

The efficiency and potential GHG reduction of corn planting based on LCA+DEA method

在推进实施碳达峰、碳中和战略背景下,该文根据调查统计资料,利用生命周期评价(life cycle assessment, LCA)与数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis, DEA)相结合的方法对中国玉米的种植效率及温室气体减排潜力进行实证研究,结果表明:1) 2019年,20个主产省份的玉米种植效率均值为0.933 2,其中11个DEA低效省份效率介于0.621 7~0.975 4之间,平均值为0.772 6.种植效率对农药投入用量的敏感性最高,种子次之,柴油和化肥较低.2)低效省份当前每公顷排放的温室气体数量平均值为3 310.56 kg CO_(2)-eq,其中来自化肥的排放贡献率(75.10%)最高,柴油(19.98%)次之,农药(3.59%)和种子(1.32%)较低.在化肥排放结构中,氮肥排放占比(54.84%)最高,复合肥(43.45%)次之,磷肥(1.70%)和钾肥(0.02%)较低.3)为达到DEA有效,低效省份每公顷可以削减的温室气体介于30.69~2 345.02 kg CO_(2)-eq之间,平均值为844.64 kg CO_(2)-eq,其中,山东、河南两省的减排潜力分居全国前两位,总体上看减排潜力与种植效率呈反向变化关系.该项研究可望为玉米种植的低碳化导控路径设计提供参考依据.

Under the background of implementing the carbon peak and carbon neutralization strategy.Based on the survey and statistical data,this paper makes an empirical study on the production efficiency and greenhouse gas(GHG)emission reduction potential of China s corn by using the methods of Life Cycle Architecture and Data Envelopment Analysis(LCA+DEA).The results are shown as follows:1)In 2019,the average corn production efficiency of 20 main producing provinces(decision-making units)is 0.9332,of which the scores of 11 low efficiency units are between 0.6217~0.9754,with an average value of 0.7726.The sensitivity of production efficiency to pesticide input is the highest,followed by seeds,diesels and fertilizers are lower.2)At present,the average amount of greenhouse gases emitted per hectare in inefficient provinces is 3310.56 kg CO_(2)-eq,of which the contribution rate of chemical fertilizers is the highest(75.10%),followed by diesels(19.98%),pesticides(3.59%)and seeds(1.32%)are lower.In the fertilizer emission structure,nitrogen fertilizer accounts for the highest proportion(54.84%),followed by complex fertilizer(43.45%),phosphate fertilizer(1.70%)and potassium fertilizer(0.02%)are lower.3)In order to achieve DEA effectiveness,the greenhouse gas per hm 2 of low efficiency unit can be reduced by 30.69~2345.02kg CO_(2)-eq,with an average value of 844.64kg CO_(2)-eq.Among them,the emission reduction potential of Shandong Province and Henan Province rank among the top two in China,and the emission reduction potential has a reverse relationship with production efficiency.This study provides some basis for improving corn production efficiency and exploring low-carbon guidance and control path.