长江经济带战略对区域经济增长效应研究--基于双重差分和空间双重差分的实证考察

Study on the Effect of Yangtze River Economic Belt Strategy on Regional Economic Growth—An Empirical Examination Based on DID and SDID

本文选取2010—2019年我国31个省(区、市)面板数据,采用双重差分和空间双重差分,实证考察长江经济带战略对区域经济增长的影响。研究发现:长江经济带战略显著促进了区域经济增长,且结论通过了一系列检验;空间双重差分结果表明战略的实施对带内省市和周边省(区、市)具有显著的空间溢出效应;异质性分析表明,战略的实施显著促进了上中下游经济发展,且为下游带来的经济增长效应要远大于上游和中游地区。研究结论为继续推动长江经济带战略以促进区域经济增长、发挥长江经济带下游地区经济发展“领头羊”的带动作用以及统筹区域经济协调发展具有重要参考意义。

The strategy of the Yangtze River economic belt is relevant to the overall development of the country and plays a vital role in promoting regional economic growth.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019,this paper empirically examines the impact of the Yangtze River economic belt strategy on regional economic growth.It is found that the Yangtze River economic belt strategy significantly promotes regional economic growth,and the findings pass a series of robustness tests;the spatial difference-in-difference results indicate that the implementation of the strategy has significant spatial spillover effects on neighboring and surrounding provinces;the heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the strategy significantly promotes the economic development in the upper,middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River,and the economic growth effect for the lower reaches is much greater than that for the upper and middle reaches.The findings of the study have important reference significance for continuing to promote the Yangtze River economic belt strategy to promote regional economic growth,leveraging on the role of the lower reaches in leading economic development,and coordinating the regional economic development.