基于投影寻踪法的中国城市低碳发展水平评价

Evaluation of Low-carbon Development Level of Chinese Cities Based on Projection Tracing Method

随着“碳达峰”和“碳中和”成为国家战略的重中之重,城市作为碳排放的主战场,如何提升我国城市低碳发展水平尤为关键。本文构建了以经济结构、能源结构、交通运输结构、生产方式、生活方式以及环境为一级指标的城市低碳发展水平指标体系,基于投影寻踪法评价2021年我国31个直辖市及省会城市低碳发展水平,结果发现:(1)低碳城市发展中经济结构影响最大,其次是城市环境和工业企业生产方式。(2)目前低碳城市发展水平可分为4个梯队,区域之间发展不平衡不充分,东部、中部、西部地区城市低碳城市发展水平呈“阶梯式”降低。(3)对分项指标数据进行因子聚类可将31个直辖市及省会城市的低碳发展类型分为经济主导型城市、生产主导型城市、环境主导型城市以及居民生活主导型城市等四类城市,并对不同类型城市群低碳发展提出针对性建议。

Resource and climate issues have become a huge challenge facing the world,with"carbon neutrality"and"carbon peak"becoming the top priority of our national strategy,cities being the main battlefield of carbon emission reduction,how to improve the level of low-carbon development of China's cities is particularly critical.In this paper,an index system for the level of urban low-carbon development based on economic structure,energy structure,transportation structure,production mode,lifestyle and environment as the first-level indicators is constructed,and the low-carbon development level of 31 cities in China in 2021 is evaluated based on the projection tracing method.It finds that(1)the economic structure has the greatest impact in low-carbon cities,followed by urban environment and production mode of industrial enterprises.(2)At present,the development level of low-carbon cities is insufficient and unbalanced between regions,which can be divided into four echelons,and the development level of low-carbon cities in the eastern,central and western regions steps down in gradient.(3)Factor clustering of sub-index data can divide the low-carbon development of 31 cities into four types:economy-oriented cities,production-oriented cities,environment-oriented cities and residents'life-oriented cities,and targeted suggestions put forward for the low-carbon development of different types of urban agglomerations.