人力资本对农业经济增长的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证检验

The Impact of Human Capital on Agricultural Economic Growth:An Empirical Test based on Provincial Panel Data

乡村振兴是全面建设社会主义现代化国家征程上的伟大战略。文章基于1995—2020年30个省份的面板数据,采用中央财经大学人力资本和劳动研究中心使用改进后的Jorgenson-Fraumeni终身收入法测算后的人力资本数据,描绘出农村人力资本数量和农业经济的变化趋势,然后运用新古典卢卡斯人力资本增长模型,借助固定效应模型实证分析了中国农村人力资本数量对农业经济增长的影响。结果表明:人力资本对农业经济增长起正向促进作用,将滞后项加入模型后,依然没有改变人力资本对农业经济的影响作用。文章最后从促进城乡教育均衡发展、建立健全我国的农业教育及培训体系,加强农业人才引进及农业教育师资队伍建设,强化农业生产技术的研究及推广运用等方面,给出了相应的对策建议,以期改善农村人力资本,促进农业经济增长。

Rural revitalization is a great strategy in the process of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 1995 to 2020,this paper uses the human capital data measured by the Human Capital and Labor Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics using the improved Jorgenson-Fraumeni life-long income method to describe the change trend of the number of rural human capital and agricultural economy,and then uses the neoclassical Lucas human capital growth model,With the help of fixed effect model,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the quantity of rural human capital on agricultural economic growth in China.The results show that human capital plays a positive role in promoting agricultural economic growth.After adding the lag term to the model,the impact of human capital on agricultural economy remains unchanged.At the end of the article,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the aspects of promoting the balanced development of urban and rural education,establishing and improving China's agricultural education and training system,strengthening the introduction of agricultural talents,strengthening the construction of agricultural education teachers,and strengthening the research and application of agricultural production technology,with a view to improving rural human capital and promoting agricultural economic growth.