城市金融发展与外商直接投资——基于古寺院金融的研究视角

Financial Development in Cities and FDI:From the Perspective of Old Temple Finance

本文选择寺院金融作为当地金融发展水平的工具变量,准确识别金融发展对外商直接投资的影响及其机制。从理论上分析了古寺院金融通过多条渠道对现代金融发展产生影响。使用工具变量两阶段最小二乘法和我国2004—2016年261个地级及以上城市数据的实证检验发现:城市金融发展水平的提升会通过“竞争效应”显著抑制外商直接投资;该抑制效应在初始金融发展水平较高、外商集聚程度较高和市场化程度较高的城市更为显著。通过一系列稳健性检验和安慰剂检验后,以上结果依然成立。政策分析表明,促进金融发展的政策通过调节不同地区外资流入的增速有助于实现我国区域间协调发展。

This paper theoretically analyzes the effect of old temple finance on modern financial development through multiple channels.We then choose old temple finance as the instrumental variable of local financial development level and tackle with the endogeneity problem,which ensures us to identify the causal effect of financial development on foreign direct investment,and meanwhile detect the possible transmission mechanism.Based on IV-2SLS,we empirically analyze the panel data of 261 prefecture level cities in China from 2004 to 2016.The results show that improved financial development in city level will significantly reduce the flow of FDI through the competition effect,which even intensifies in more financially-developed,more FDI-aggrega-ted,and more marketized cities.These results are robust by different measurement methods of financial development,including robustness testing and placebo test.Finally,a further policy analysis indicates that the policies that facilitate financial development will promote balanced development in different regions by adjusting growth rate of FDI flows.