气候变化背景下城市韧性测度——以长三角城市应对雨洪风险为例

Measurement of City Resilience under the Background of Climate Change:A Case Study of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta Responding to Stormwater

选取长三角城市群27个地级及以上城市开展城市韧性测度研究。基于复杂适应系统理论,将城市韧性界定为一般韧性和特指韧性,构建城市应对雨洪风险的“雨洪致灾危险性—城市韧性”指标体系。通过因子分析客观赋权方法,选择“十二五”和“十三五”两个规划期,对长三角中心城市开展雨洪韧性评估。结果表明,长三角城市的雨洪韧性主要受到城市发展因子、社会保障和外来人口因子、灰—蓝基础设施因子、交通设施因子、绿色基础设施因子的影响。通过比较致灾危险性指数与城市雨洪韧性指数的关系,得到4类典型城市:脆弱型城市15个,高风险城市6个,低风险城市6个,韧性城市缺失。城市化进程与社会发展能力的提升是增强城市一般韧性和特指韧性的重要基础,海绵城市建设有助于提升雨洪基础设施等特指韧性,处于不同韧性类别的城市应采取发展型、增量型等不同适应路径。

This paper selects 27 prefecture-level and higher cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration for the urban resilience measurement research.Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems,urban resilience is described as generic and specific resilience and an index system of"rainfall flood hazard-urban resilience"is established.Through factor analysis,this paper evaluates the stormwater resilience of main cities in the Yangtze River Delta in two planning periods-the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan.The results show that the stormwater resilience of cities in the Yangtze River Delta is mainly influenced by the urban development factor,social security and immigrant population factor,gray-blue infrastructure factor,transportation facility factor,and green infrastructure factor.By comparing the relationship between disaster-causing index and urban rainfall resilience index,this paper concludes four types of cities:15 vulnerable cities,6 high-risk cities,6 low-risk cities,and resilient cities are missing.The research points out that the urbanization process and the improvement of social development capacity is an important basis for enhancing the generic and specific resilience of cities.Sponge city construction helps to improve specific resilience such as rainwater infrastructure.Cities in different resilience categories should adopt different adaptation paths such as developmental,incremental and transformational adaptation.