基于模糊网络分析法的小型水库退役影响评价

Impact assessment of small reservoirs decommissioning based on Fuzzy Analytic Network Process

为应对小型水库病险老化、功能丧失、经济效益衰退及生态系统退化等影响,保障水库退役科学决策、促进退役工作开展,应用模糊网络分析法从生态环境、经济和社会3个方面建立了小型水库退役影响评价模型,对水库退役影响进行分析评价。以江西省某小型水库为例进行验证,考察水库退役后基本情况,确定模糊关系矩阵与权重并进行综合评价,结果表明:评价模型合理,评价结果与现状相符。所构建的方法体系对于小型水库退役决策适用性较强,可为相关部门制定水库退役计划提供技术支撑。

In order to cope with the effects of dangerous aging,function loss,economic decline and ecosystem degradation of small reservoirs in China,ensure the scientific decision of reservoir decommissioning and promote the decommissioning work,the Fuzzy Network Analysis Process was applied to establish a small reservoir decommissioning impact evaluation model from three aspects of ecological environment,economy and society,to analyze and evaluate the impact of reservoir decommissioning.Taking a small reservoir in Jiangxi Province as an example,the basic situation of the reservoir after decommissioning was investigated,the fuzzy relation matrix and weight were determined and the comprehensive evaluation was carried out.The results showed that the evaluation model was reasonable and the evaluation results were consistent with the current situation,which indicated that the constructed method system has strong applicability to the decommissioning decision of small reservoirs,and can provide technical support for the relevant departments to make reservoir decommissioning plans.