基于DEMATEL-ISM的采空区稳定性影响因素研究

Study on Influencing Factors of Goaf Stability Based on DEMATEL-ISM

为提高采空区稳定性风险管理水平,针对采空区的复杂性和不确定性特点,从采空区自身条件、水文地质和环境3个维度提取25个指标,建立采空区稳定性影响因素指标体系;运用决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL),研究影响因素之间的交互耦合作用,计算影响因素的中心度和原因度,识别出关键因素;进一步利用解释结构模型(ISM)划分因素的层次结构,构建多级递阶结构模型。结果表明:深厚比、顶板岩性和地质构造是采空区稳定性的主要影响因素;采动程度、顶板暴露面积和矿柱比值是采空区稳定性的直接致因;岩体基本质量是采空区稳定性的本质致因,其余因素为过渡致因,对本质致因须加强预防和管控。

In order to improve the risk management level of goaf stability,according to the complexity and uncertainty characteristics of goaf,25 indexes are extracted from three dimensions of goaf conditions,hydrogeology and environment,and the index system of influencing factors of goaf stability is established.The DEMATEL method is used to study the interaction between the influencing factors,and the centrality and causality of the influencing factors are calculated to identify the key factors.Furthermore,the hierarchical structure of factors is divided based on ISM,and a multi-level hierarchical structure model is established.The results show that depth-thickness ratio,roof lithology and geological structure are the main influencing factors of goaf stability.Mining degree,roof exposure area and pillar ratio are the direct causes of goaf stability.Basic quality of rock is the essential cause of goaf stability,and the remaining factors are transitional causes.The prevention and control of essential causes must be strengthened.