人工智能、产业结构优化与绿色发展效率——理论分析和经验证据

Artificial Intelligence,Industrial Structure Optimization and Green Development Efficiency:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence

随着人工智能技术迭代演进,其与实体经济的深入发展融合,成为中国绿色发展的重要引擎。本文结合非连续创新路径跨越和技术范式转换理论,以产业结构优化为切入点构建人工智能技术赋能绿色发展的逻辑框架,并利用2009—2021年中国省级面板数据系统检验人工智能对绿色发展效率的提升效应。研究发现:人工智能会提升绿色发展效率,引入Bartik工具变量和《中国制造2025》政策冲击作为工具变量进行内生性修正后,该结论仍成立。产业结构高级化和合理化是人工智能提升绿色发展效率的重要机制路径。异质性分析发现,中国转型经济背景下,人工智能的产业结构优化效应在技术创新人力资本积累越深厚、市场化水平越高、要素市场扭曲程度越低的地区中表现得更明显,从而能更充分赋能绿色发展。拓展性分析表明,人工智能对推动绿色发展具有时滞效应,但该效应在技术密集度和资本密集度投向更高时可得到一定程度缓解。

With the iterative evolution of artificial intelligence(Al)technology.its in-depth development and integration with the real economy has become an important engine for green development in China.Combining discontinuous innovation path crossing and technology paradigm shift theory,this paper constructs a logical framework for Al technology-enabled green development with industrial structure optimization as the entry point,and uses the 2009-2021 Chinese provincial panel data system to test the enhancement effect of Al on green development efficiency.It is found that Al enhances green development efficiency,and the conclusion is still valid after introdu cing Bartik instrumental variables and Made in China 2025 policy shocks as instrumental variables for endogeneity correction.Advanced and rationalized industrial structure is an important mechanism path for Al to enhance green development efficiency.Heterogencity analysis finds that the in dustrial structure optimization cffect of Al in the context of China's transition economy is more pronounced in regions with deeper accumulation of technological innovation human capital,higher level of marketization,and lower distortion of factor markets,which can more fully empower green development.Expanded analysis shows that Al has a time-lag effect on promoting green development.but this effect can be mitigated to some extent when technology-intensity and capital-intensity are invested at higherlevels.