产业互动、结构转型与中国经济高质量发展

Industrial Interaction,Structural Transformation and High-quality Development of China’s Economy

产业互动正成为推动经济高质量发展的重要途经。构建多部门一般均衡模型阐明产业互动、结构转型与经济高质量发展之间的理论机理,并基于2000—2017年的省份面板数据展开实证检验,最后探索数字技术驱动经济高质量发展的赋能路径。研究发现,(1)产业互动在整体上能够推动我国经济高质量发展,但呈现出显著的不平衡性特征,尚未形成良性的双向促进模式;(2)产业互动对经济高质量发展的影响在行业和区域层面呈现出显著的差异性;(3)当前非良性的产业互动会拉大服务业和工业间的生产率差距,推动我国经济结构向服务化转型,可能导致我国经济发展陷入“低效率-低端服务化-更低效率”的怪圈,阻碍经济高质量发展的可持续性;(4)数字技术可以从缓解结构性矛盾、推动产业良性互动和缩小产业间生产率差距三方面打破发展困境,实现经济高质量发展目标。以上研究结论为政府推动两业融合,实现经济高质量发展提供经验证据。

Industrial interaction is becoming an important way to promote high-quality economic development.This paper constructed a multi-sector general equilibrium model to clarify the theoretical mechanism between industrial interaction,structural transformation and high-quality economic development and carried out empirical tests based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017.Finally we explored how digital technology empowers high-quality economic development.The study found that(1)industrial interaction can promote the high-quality development of China’s economy on the whole,but it shows a significant imbalance and a favorable two-way mutual promoting relationship has not yet been formed;(2)The impact of industrial interaction on the high-quality economic development has significant industrial and regional heterogeneity;(3)The current unfavorable industrial interaction will widen the productivity gap between the service industry and the industry and promote China’s economic structure servictization transformation,which may lead the economic development to a vicious circle of“low efficiency-low-end service industry-lower efficiency”and hinder the sustainability of high-quality economic development;(4)Digital technology can break the development dilemma and achieve the goal of high-quality economic development by alleviating structural contradictions,promoting favorable industrial interaction and narrowing the productivity gap between industries.The research conclusions mentioned above provide empirical evidence for the government to promote the integration of the advanced manufacturing and modern service industries and achieve high-quality economic development.