俄乌冲突的“蝴蝶效应”与中国粮食安全的地缘风险

The Butterfly Effect of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Geopolitical Risks to China's Food Security

俄乌冲突所导致的“蝴蝶效应”使中国的粮食安全面临着严峻的地缘风险。“蝴蝶效应”强调在对变化高度敏感的议题领域中,体系内关键节点的微小改变会引发连锁反应,造成与之体量不相匹配的后果。在相互依赖的全球市场中,由于粮食具有安全属性,各国对粮食市场的变化高度敏感。因此,在俄罗斯和乌克兰两大“市场关键点”粮食出口收缩后,全球粮食市场中的供给不足被催化并加剧了国际粮价的异动,这一“连锁反应”诱发了全球性的粮食安全风险。对中国而言,此次“蝴蝶效应”波及了粮食进口的稳定、提升了美国在中国粮食进口中的优势地位、冲击了中国粮食进口的渠道、加剧了粮食进口被“安全化”的趋势。对此,中国亟需提高粮食安全的韧性,丰富粮食进口来源并利用金融手段缓解粮价波动,以规避地缘政治变化的“蝴蝶效应”冲击中国的粮食安全。

The butterfly effect caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict raises severe geographical risks to China's food security.The butterfly effect emphasizes that small changes around critical points in the system will trigger chain reactions and cause a substantial outcome.In the interdependent global market,countries are highly sensitive to the changes of the food market due to the nature of food security and its purposes for survival and strategic materials.As a result,the supply deficit in the food market was catalyzed and exacerbated by the contraction of food exports from Russia and Ukraine.This triggered chain reactions and raised a risk of the global food security.For China,this butterfly effect reflects the stability of food imports,enhances the dominant position of the United States in China's food imports,impacts China's sources of food imports,and intensifies the securitization of the food import.In this sense,China urgently needs to improve the resilience of food security,enrich the sources of food imports and use financial means to alleviate the fluctuation of food prices in order to address the butterfly effect of geopolitical changes threatening China's food security.