经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的影响——基于非线性视角的实证分析

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Sustainability of Firm Innovation:An Empirical Analysis Based on a Nonlinear Perspective

创新是经济发展的动力之源,而创新持续性则是企业保持竞争优势的关键。本文以2009—2020年A股上市公司为样本,探究经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的影响。研究发现:经济政策不确定与企业创新持续性之间具有“U型”非线性关系,且研发投入在其中发挥部分中介作用。进一步研究发现:经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的“U型”非线性影响在不同区位因素及知识产权保护力度差异下表现出异质性;多个大股东持股及较为宽松的货币政策能够缓解经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的“U型”影响。故政府在采用宏观经济政策调控经济发展时要谨慎把握政策调控的尺度,进一步完善我国多层次的资本市场体系,从而不断提升企业的创新持续性水平,推动我国经济的高质量发展。

Innovation is the source of economic development,and innovation sustainability is the key to maintaining a competitive advantage.Taking A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2020 as a research sample,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the sustainability of enterprise innovation was explored.The results show that there is a“U-shaped”non-linear relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the sustainability of enterprise innovation,and R&D investment plays a part of the mediating role.Further research shows that the“U-shaped”nonlinear impact of economic policy uncertainty on the sustainability of enterprise innovation shows heterogeneity under different location factors and different intensity of intellectual property protection.The shareholding of a number of major shareholders and the relatively loose monetary policy can alleviate the“U-shaped”impact of economic policy uncertainty on the sustainability of corporate innovation.Therefore,when adopting macroeconomic policies to regulate economic development,the government should carefully grasp the scale of policy regulation and control,further improve China’s multi-level capital market system,so as to continuously improve the level of innovation sustainability of enterprises and promote the high-quality development of China’s economy.