浩吉铁路对华中三省能源供应成本和碳排放影响分析

Analysis on the Impact of Haolebaoji-Ji'an Railway on Energy Supply Cost and Carbon Emission of Three Provinces Located in Central China

为提升华中地区湖北、湖南、江西3省能源利用和电源规划的合理性,提高浩吉铁路通道利用效率,构建了考虑煤炭运输约束的区域电源优化模型。在预测华中3省电力电量及煤炭供需的基础上,以系统总成本最小为目标函数,考虑电力供需、通道运输能力、电源装机上限等约束,分析了浩吉铁路运力对3省能源供应总成本和碳排放的影响。分析结果表明,近期浩吉铁路有利于保障区域煤炭供给、降低能源供应总成本和单位煤炭的运输成本,但中长期来看,浩吉铁路会带来区域碳排放量的增加,出于碳中和与能源转型的考量,作为运煤专线运力在中长期难以得到充分释放。未来华中3省仍需提升清洁能源和特高压的利用规模。

To improve the rationality of energy utilization and power source planning of Hubei Hunan and Jiangxi provinces and increase the operation rate of the corridor along with the Haolebaoji-Ji'an Railway,on the basis of considering the constraint of coal transportation a regional power source optimization model,in which the constraint of coal transportation was considered,was constructed.On the basis of forecasting the supply and demand of the power and coal in the three provinces located in Central China and taking the minimum total cost of the system as the objective function and taking the power supply and demand,the transportation capability of transport corridor,the upper limit of installed capacity as constraints,the impacts of transportation capability of Haolebaoji-Ji'an Railway on total cost of power supply and carbon emission the three provinces were analyzed.Analysis results show that in the near future the transportation capability of Haolebaoji-Ji'an Railway is beneficial to secure regional coal supply,decrease total cost of energy source supply as well as the transportation cost of unit coal,however,in the viewpoint of medium and long term the Haolebaoji-Ji'an Railway will bring about the increase of regional carbon emission,thus from the consideration of carbon neutrality and energy reform,as an exclusive line for coal transport the transport capacity of Haolebaoji-Ji'an Railway will be hard to be adequately released.In the future,the utilization scale of clean energy and extra-high voltage should be further enlarged.