人口老龄化、公共支出与生态可持续

Population Aging,Public Expenditure and Ecological Sustainability

基于我国30个省(自治区、直辖市)2004—2020年的面板数据,从理论和实证两个方面,就人口老龄化、公共支出和生态可持续进行系统分析。实证研究表明,人口老龄化对生态可持续具有显著负向影响,节能环保支出在二者间存在显著负向中介效应,健康卫生支出在二者间存在显著正向中介效应。相比于西部地区,东中部地区人口老龄化抑制生态可持续发展的影响更为明显。能源消费结构优化、居民环保意识提升和产业结构优化有利于促进生态可持续,而过快的城市化进程制约了生态可持续发展。进一步分位数估计发现,生态可持续同时具有低龄老龄化的显著负向影响和高龄老龄化的不显著正向影响的趋势。最后,根据上述研究结果,提出了帮助我国实现生态可持续发展目标的政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2004 to 2020,this paper systematically analyzed population aging,public expenditure and ecological sustainability from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Empirical results show that population aging has a significant negative impact on ecological sustainability,environmental protection expenditure has a significant negative mediating effect between the two,and health expenditure has a significant positive mediating effect between the two.Compared with the western region,the impact of population aging on ecological sustainable development in the eastern and central regions is more obvious.The optimization of energy consumption structure,the improvement of residents’ environmental awareness and the optimization of industrial structure are conducive to the promotion of ecological sustainable development,while the rapid urbanization process restricts the ecological sustainable development.Further quantile estimation showed that ecological sustainability had both a significant negative impact of aging at a young age and a non-significant positive impact of aging at a very old age.Finally,according to the above research results,some policy suggestions are put forward to help our country achieve the goal of ecological sustainable development.