后疫情时代城市末端配送转型升级动力机制研究

Research on the Dynamic Mechanism of the Transformation and Upgrading of Urban Terminal Distribution in the Post-epidemic Era

新冠肺炎疫情让“无接触配送”家喻户晓,我国经济高质量发展要求也使城市末端配送模式转型升级迫在眉睫。基于Ballou二维矩阵决策模型构建城市末端配送模式转型升级的内生与外生动力机制模型,内生动力考虑增加防疫成本下送货上门、快递柜自提、便利店代收、共同配送四种末端配送模式的成本优势,外生动力考虑疫情防控要求从政府支持力度、消费者满意度、快递企业管理效率三个层面对四种模式进行模糊综合评价,并在此基础上通过现实案例进行验证。研究结果表明,后疫情时代,快递柜自提模式具有最强的转型升级内生动力,共同配送模式具有最强的外生动力,总体而言,快递柜自提模式是未来城市末端配送体系的首选,共同配送和便利店代收模式次之,送货上门模式转型升级动力最弱。研究结论为后疫情时代城市末端配送体系的完善发展提供了一定的依据。

The COVID-19 pandemic has made“contactless delivery”a household word.The high-quality development of China’s economy also pushes the transformation and upgrading of urban terminal distribution mode.In this paper,based on Ballou two-dimensional matrix decision-making model,we construct the endogenous and exogenous dynamic mechanism models for the transformation and upgrading of urban terminal distribution mode.The endogenous dynamic model was constructed by considering four terminal distribution modes,namely home delivery,self-pickup of express cabinet,convenience store collection and joint distribution,under the increased epidemic prevention cost to discuss the cost advantages.The exogenous power considers the epidemic prevention and control requirements,and makes a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the four modes from the three levels of government support,consumer satisfaction and management efficiency of express enterprises.On this basis,it is verified by actual cases.The research results show that in the post-epidemic era,the self-pickup mode of express cabinets has the strongest endogenous power for transformation and upgrading,while the joint distribution mode has the strongest exogenous power.In general,the self-pickup mode of express delivery cabinet is the first choice for the future urban terminal distribution system,followed by joint delivery and convenience store collection mode,and the home delivery mode has the weakest driving force.This study provides a theoretical basis for the improvement and development of urban terminal system in the post-epidemic era.