2011-2020年中国疾病控制机构人力资源配置公平性与预测分析

Analysis of fairness and prediction of human resource allocation in Chinese disease control agency from 2011 to 2020

[目的]了解2011-2020年中国疾病控制机构(疾控机构)人力资源配置公平性,并预测未来5年全国疾控机构人力资源数量,为加强疾控机构人才队伍建设提供参考。[方法]采用卫生资源集聚度评价我国疾控机构人力资源配置的公平程度,采用指数平滑法对疾控人力资源进行预测。[结果]2020年,全国、东部、中部和西部地区每万人口疾控人员数分别为1.38人、1.13人、1.43人、1.76人,人力资源按地理面积配置的公平性为东部>中部>西部,按人口配置的公平性为西部>中部>东部。通过指数平滑法对2021-2025年疾控卫生人力资源进行预测的结果为197,128人、201,831人、207,477人、214,067人、221,599人。[结论]我国疾控人才队伍总量不足,东部地区和中部地区每万人口疾控人员数未达标,疾控人力资源空间布局不均衡且有明显的地域差异。

Objective To understand the fairness of human resource allocation in Chinese disease control agencies from 2011 to 2020 and to provide reference for strengthening the human resources construction of disease control institutions by predicting the number of human resources in the next five years.Methods The agglomeration degree of health resource was used to evaluate the fairness of human resource allocation in disease control agencies in China.Exponential smoothing was used to predict the human resources in disease control agencies.Results The number of disease control personnel per 10000 people in the country,eastern,central and western regions was 1.38,1.13,1.43 and 1.76 respectively in 2020.The fairness of human resources allocation based on geographical areas was eastern region>central region>western region,and the fairness of allocation based on population was western region>central region>eastern region.The predicting results of health human resources in disease control agencies by exponential smoothing method were 197128,201831,207477,214067 and 221599 from 2021 to 2025.Conclusions The total number of disease control personnel in China is insufficient.The number of disease control personnel per 10000 people in the eastern region and central region is below standard.The spatial distribution of human resources in disease control agencies is unbalanced and there are obvious regional differences.