全球主要国家新型冠状病毒感染疫情流行特征及态势分析

emiological characteristics and trends of global COVID-19

目的:分析全球新型冠状病毒感染(新冠感染)疫情数据及防控措施,了解新冠感染疫情流行特征、发展趋势及影响防控效果的主要因素,为科学防控新冠感染提供参考依据。方法:新冠感染疫情数据主要来源于世界卫生组织(WHO)及美国、欧洲疾病预防控制中心等网站报告数据。梳理全球新冠感染疫情流行特征、发展态势,探讨影响疫情防控的主要因素。统计时间为疫情开始至2022年3月31日,采用SPSS 19.0软件整理数据及统计分析。结果:全球范围内新冠感染累计确诊病例,2020年4月2日达100万例,2020年6月28日达1 000万例,2021年1月25日达1.00亿例,2021年8月3日达2.00亿例,2022年1月6日达3.00亿例,2022年2月8日达4.00亿例,2022年3月31日达4.89亿例。2020年1月至2022年3月31日,每增加1亿病例的间隔时间逐渐缩短(疫情开始到全球病例增至1亿约360 d,从1亿增长到2亿、2亿增至3亿的时间平均为170 d,确诊病例从3亿增至4亿仅为33 d),疫情发展速度加快。全球范围内累计死亡病例,2020年4月9日为10万例,2020年9月19日达100万例,2021年10月31日达500万例,2022年3月31日达614万例。2021年1-10月,死亡病例每增加100万例的时间间隔平均为97 d,10月份之后增速下降,平均为121 d。2021年末,受奥密克戎(Omicron)变异株的影响,全球范围内感染者剧增。截至2022年3月31日,各大洲累计确诊病例数从高到低依次为欧洲(1.81亿)、亚洲(1.41亿)、北美洲(9 467万)、南美洲(5 609万)、非洲(1 155万)和大洋洲(558万)。累计死亡病例数从高到低依次为欧洲(177万)、北美洲(142万)、亚洲(141万)、南美洲(128万)、非洲(25万)和大洋洲(0.89万)。新冠感染疫情累计确诊病例排名前5位的国家依次是美国(8 014万)、印度(4 303万)、巴西(2 998万)、法国(2 582万)和英国(2 128万)。累计死亡病例排名前5位的国家依次是美国(98万)、巴西(66万)、印度(52万)、英国(16万)和法国(14万)。结论:新冠感染疫情是一次全球范围内的公共卫生紧急事件,疫情在全球蔓延,传染性强,传播速度快,危害性大,建议加强重点环节防控,完善预警机制,继续疫苗接种等科学公共卫生防控措施,减少重症和死亡,应对持续挑战。

Objective To analyze the global epidemic data of Corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)and the prevention and control measures,learn about the epidemic characteristics,development trend and the main factors affecting the prevention and control effect,and provide reference for scientific prevention and control of COVID-19.Methods The data of COVID-19 mainly came from the WHO website and the websites of the United States,European and other Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(the statistical time was from the beginning of the epidemic in each country to March 31,2022).The epidemiological characteristics and trends in the world and major countries were analyzed,and the main factors affecting the prevention and control of the epidemic were studied.SPSS 19.0 software was used to collate data and statistical analysis.Results The worldwide cumulative confirmed cases of C0VID-19 reached 1 million on April 2,2020,10 million cases on June 28,2020,100 million cases on January 25,2021,200 million cases on August 3,2021,300 million cases on January 6,2022,400 million cases on February 8,2022,489 million cases on March 31,2022.From January 2020 to March 31,2022,the interval between each additional 100 million cases was gradually shortened(about 360 days from the beginning of the epidemic to the increase to 100 million,the average time to increase from 100 million to 200 million,from 200 million to 300 million was 170 days,and the number of confirmed cases increased from 300 million to 400 million was only 33 days),the epidemic had accelerated.The worldwide cumulative number of death case was 100000 on April 9,2020,1 million on September 19,2020,5 million on October 31,2021,and 6.14 million on March 31,2022.From January to October 2021,the average time interval for an increase of 1 million deaths was 97 days.After October,the growth rate decreased,averaging 121 days.At the end of 2021,affected by the Omicron mutation,the number of infected people worldwide increased sharply.By March 31,2022,the cumulative number of confirmed cases in all continents was Europe(181 million),Asia(141 million),North America(94.67 million),South America(56.09 million),Africa(11.55 million)and Oceania(5.58 million)from high to low.The cumulative deaths from high to low was Europe(1.77 million),North America(1.42 million),Asia(1.41 million),South America(1.28 million),Africa(0.25 million)and Oceania(8900).The top 5 countries with cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 were the United States(80.14 million),India(43.03 million),Brazil(29.98 million),France(25.82 million)and the United Kingdom(21.28 million).The top five countries with accumulated deaths were the United States(980000),Brazil(660000),India(520000),the United Kingdom(160000)and France(140000).Conclusions C0VID-19 is a global public health emergency.The epidemic has spread worldwide with strong infectivity,rapid transmission and great harm.It is suggested to focus on the prevention and control of key links,strengthen the early warning mechanism,continue to take scientific public health prevention and control measures such as vaccination,reduce severe case and death and deal with an ongoing challenge.