针对香港地区2021年秋冬季COVID-19的趋势预测及中医防治建议

Prediction,Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 during Autumn to Winter of 2021 in Hong Kong region Based on Traditional Chinese Medicine

该研究以中医传统智慧—五运六气理论为依据,选择香港地区2020年1月18日(首例报告时间)—2021年8月31日COVID-19(corona virus disease 2019)的报告发病数据,及近30年的气象数据[即平均气压(hpa)、平均气温(℃)、最高气温(℃)、最低气温(℃)、平均相对湿度(%)、平均云量(%)、平均风速(km/h)、总雨量(mm)、总日照(h)共9项气象要素的日均值]。采用Logistic生长模型和指数平滑预测法,对2021年秋冬季(即9月1日-12月31日,含处暑、白露、秋分、寒露、霜降、立冬、小雪、大雪、冬至共九个节气)的COVID-19发病与气象变化情况进行预测。结果发现:今年秋季的白露节气(9月7日—9月22日)以及冬季的小雪—大雪节气(11月22日—12月20日)为香港地区COVID-19可能出现波动的两个时段。其中,脾虚湿胜及阳虚体质的人群尤应加强防护,中医推荐药物、针刺、艾灸、食疗等综合疗法进行早期预防及治疗。

In this study,based on thewisdom of traditional Chinese medicine—the theory of the five circuits and six Qi,the reported incidence data of corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Hong Kong region between January 18,2020(time of first report)and August 31,2021,and the meteorological data of the past 30 years[i.e.mean air pressure(hpa),mean temperature(℃),maximum temperature(℃),minimum temperature(℃),mean relative humidity(%),mean cloud cover(%),mean wind speed(km/h),total rainfall(mm),and total sunshine(h)],as daily averages of nine meteorological factors.The Logistic growth model and exponential smoothing prediction method were used to predict the onset and meteorological changes of COVID-19 in autumn and winter of 2021(i.e.September 1-December 31,including Limit of Heat,White Dew,Autumnal Equinox,Cold Dew,Frost′s Descent,Beginning of Winter,Slight Snow,Great Snow and Winter Solstice).The results revealed that the White Dew(September 7-September 22)in autumn and the Light Snow-Great Snow Festival(November 22-December 20)in winter are the two periods when COVID-19 is likely to fluctuate in Hong Kong region.In particular,people with spleen deficiency and dampness and Yang deficiency should be better protected.Traditional Chinese medicine practitioners recommend a combination of medicine,acupuncture,moxibustion and food therapy for early prevention and treatment.