用广义相加模型分析保定市臭氧浓度的影响因素

Analysis of influencing factors of O 3 concentration in Baoding based on generalized additive model

通过构建广义相加模型(GAM)探究保定市地表臭氧(O_(3))浓度的影响因素。多因素GAM显示:气象因子对O_(3)浓度的方差解释率(70.60%)大于空气主要污染物(34.30%);在一定范围内,O_(3)浓度随着日最高地面气温、总云量、细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))的升高而升高,而随着平均相对湿度和前体物(NO 2、CO)的降低而升高。O_(3)生成最适宜的日照时数为8 h,东南风和西北风为主导风向会使O_(3)浓度升高。从污染控制的角度来看,NO_(2)、CO和PM_(2.5)多种污染物需要共同控制。

Generalized additive model(GAM)was constructed to explore the influencing factors of surface O_(3)concentration in Baoding.The multi-factor GAM showed that the variance explanation rate of the meteorological factors on the O_(3)concentration(70.60%)was greater than that of the major air pollutants(34.30%).Within certain limits,O_(3)concentration increased with the daily maximum ground temperature,total cloud and PM_(2.5)increasing,but O_(3)concentration increased with average relative humidity and precursors(NO_(2)and CO)decreasing.The most suitable sunshine time was 8 h for O_(3)formation,and the dominant wind direction from the southeast and northwest would increase the concentration of O_(3).From the perspective of pollution control,NO_(2),CO and PM_(2.5)should be controlled together.