技术进步和结构调整对行业能源回弹效应的估算

Estimation of Technological Progress and Structural Adjustment on the Industrial Energy Rebound Effect

能源回弹效应的大小在很大程度上决定着能效改善对降低能源消费的有效程度。我国经济总体的能源回弹效应并不高,能效改善能够有效节约能源消费量。能源回弹效应具有行业异质性,细分行业的技术进步回弹效应的最大值为39.82%、最小值为1.64%;细分行业的结构调整回弹效应的最大值为38.68%、最小值为4.14%。能源回弹效应具有阶段性特征,2012~2017年发生能源回弹效应的行业数量明显低于2002~2007年和2007~2012年。因此,我国应着力提高水的生产与供应业等行业的科技创新水平,提升能源利用效率。提高非金属矿物制品业等高能源回弹行业的准入标准,淘汰科技水平落后的企业。顺应行业结构演进的客观规律,积极培育低耗能高附加值的绿色服务业和战略性新兴产业。

The magnitude of energy rebound effect largely determines the effectiveness of energy efficiency improvement in reducing energy consumption. The rebound effect of technological progress and structural adjustment of China′s overall economy is 8. 10% and 5. 35% respectively. The energy rebound effect in overall economy isn’t at an obvious level,which explains the improvement of energy efficiency can conserve energy consumption efficiently. The energy rebound effect has heterogeneity among industries. The maximum and minimum value of rebound effect of technological progress in sub segment industries are 39. 82% and 1. 64% respectively;the maximum value of rebound effect of structural adjustment in the same industries is 38. 68% while the minimum value is 4. 14%. The energy rebound effect has the characteristic of stages. The number of industries that occurred energy rebound effect from 2012 to 2017 is significantly lower than that from 2002 to 2007 and 2007 to 2012. Therefore,China should focus on improving the level of scientific and technological innovation in related industries and improving energy utilization efficiency. The entry standards for high-energy rebound industries such as non-metallic mineral products should be raised,and enterprises with backward technological levels should be eliminated. The country should comply with the objective laws of industry structure evolution,and actively cultivate green service industries and strategic emerging industries with low energy consumption and high added value.