发展跨境电商能刺激改革地区的家庭消费吗?

Can the Development of Cross-border E-commerce Stimulate Household Consumption in Experimental Areas?

消费是驱动经济增长的三驾马车之一,在供给侧结构性改革和“国际国内双循环”新发展格局的宏观背景下,刺激消费成为拉动内需和“内循环”的重要落脚点。作为数字经济供给侧结构性改革的延伸,我国大力扶持跨境电商等新业态,期望通过跨境电商改革刺激消费。文章以国务院设立的跨境电商综合试验区为研究案例,结合中国家庭动态跟踪调查数据(CFPS),主要分析跨境电商改革对家庭消费的影响和作用机制。实证结果表明,跨境电商改革显著提升了改革地区的家庭消费,但对东部地区、高互联网普及率地区、农村地区和社会经济条件较差家庭样本组的消费提振作用更强。作用机制检验发现,跨境电商改革显著促进了改革地区的家庭就业、收入和储蓄,并且失业率下降、收入和储蓄提升分别是跨境电商改革提高改革地区家庭消费的间接和直接影响渠道。此外,拓展性分析发现,跨境电商改革有助于缓解改革地区的收入不平等和消费不平等问题。

Consumption is one of the troikas driving economic growth.Under the macro background of the supply side structural reform and the new development pattern of"international and domestic double circulation",stimulating consumption has become an important foothold for stimulating domestic demand and"internal circulation".As an extension of the supply side structural reform of the digital economy,China vigorously supports new business forms such as cross-border e-commerce,and hopes to stimulate consumption through cross-border e-commerce reform.This paper takes the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental areas established by the State Council as a research case and combines the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)to mainly analyze the impact and mechanism of cross-border e-commerce reform on household consumption.The empirical results show that the cross-border e-commerce reform has significantly increased the household consumption in the experimental areas,but it has a stronger effect on the consumption of the eastern region,the high internet penetration area,the rural area and the family sample group with poor social and economic conditions.The mechanism tests find that the cross-border e-commerce reform significantly promotes the employment,income and savings of families in the experimental areas,and the decrease of unemployment rate and the increase of income and savings are the indirect and direct influence channels of the cross-border e-commerce reform to improve the consumption of families in the experimental areas.In addition,the extended analysis finds that the cross-border e-commerce reform can alleviate the income inequality and consumption inequality in the experimental areas.