基于HEC-HMS模型的大水峪水库洪水预报研究

Research on Flood Forecasting of Dashuiyu Reservoir based on HEC-HMS Model

为有效解决潮白河流域中小水库洪水监测、预报调度的实际问题,本研究选取潮白河流域内暴雨频发、山洪沟道密集、防洪库容偏小的大水峪水库为研究对象,基于HEC-HMS水文模型,构建大水峪水库洪水预报模型,为水库科学优化洪水调度提供依据。HEC-HMS模型是一个具有物理概念的分布式降雨径流模型,在洪水预报中具有广泛的应用。通过大水峪水库上游4场降雨洪水过程,对该模型进行了率定验证,洪峰流量场次模拟合格率为75%,满足乙级预报精度要求。分析表明该模型在大水峪水库洪水预报模拟上有很好的应用。

To effectively solve the practical problems of flood monitoring,forecasting and dispatching of small and mediumsized reservoirs in Chaobai River Basin,this study selects Dashuiyu Reservoir in Chaobai River Basin with frequent rainstorms,dense mountain flood channels and small flood control storage capacity as the research object.Based on HECHMS hydrological model,the flood forecasting model of Dashuiyu Reservoir is built to provide a basis for the scientific optimization of flood dispatching of the reservoir.HEC-HMS model is a distributed rainfall runoff model with physical concept,which is widely used in flood forecasting.Through four rainfall and flood processes in the upper reaches of Dashuiyu Reservoir,the calibration verification of the model is carried out,and the qualified rate of flood peak flow field simulation is 75%,which meets the requirement of Class B forecasting accuracy.The analysis shows that this model has good application in flood forecasting and simulation of Dashuiyu Reservoir.