肺结核和COVID-19共发感染的建模与分析

Modeling and analysis of tuberculosis and co-infection with COVID-19

肺结核和COVID-19都是由病原体感染肺部引起的呼吸道传染病,并呈现咳嗽、发烧或者呼吸困难等部分相似的症状.借助动力学理论建立了一类肺结核和COVID-19共发感染的传播动力学模型,讨论了COVID-19对肺结核控制的可能影响.理论结果表明,除无病平衡点P_(0)外,模型还存在多个地方病平衡点P_(1),P_(2)和P_(3),并且每个平衡点在一定条件下都是全局渐近稳定的.数值模拟清晰地展示了COVID-19在人群内持续传播的可能性大于肺结核.

Both tuberculosis and COVID-19 are respiratory infectious diseases caused by pathogens infecting the lungs with partially similar symptoms such as coughing,fever or difficulty breathing.In this paper,a transmission dynamic model of tuberculosis and co-infection with COVID-19 was established by using dynamic theory,and the possible impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis control was discussed.The research results show that in addition to the disease-free equilibrium P 0,there are several endemic equilibria P_(1),P_(2) and P_(3) for the model,and each equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stability under certain conditions.Finally numerical simulations clearly show that the possibility of sustained transmission of COVID-19 in the population is higher than that of tuberculosis.