中国县域二氧化碳边际减排成本:基本事实、影响因素及区域差异分解

The Marginal Abatement Cost of Carbon Dioxide in China's Counties:Basic Facts,Influencing Factors and Decomposition of Regional Differences

廓清中国县域二氧化碳边际减排成本有助于准确评估现有应对气候变化的减排政策并为未来的政策优化提供指引。本文基于二次型方向性产出距离函数,采用随机前沿分析方法测算了2008—2016年中国1985个县的二氧化碳边际减排成本,在此基础上从基本事实、影响因素及区域差异分解的角度对县域二氧化碳边际减排成本进行了分析。研究发现:首先,样本期间中国县域二氧化碳的边际减排成本均值为1.66万元/吨。时间维度上,二氧化碳边际减排成本呈现先下降后上升的趋势;截面维度上,东部地区的二氧化碳边际减排成本低于中西部地区。其次,二氧化碳边际减排成本不仅取决于碳强度表征的减排规模效应,还与县域的产业结构效应和技术创新效应密切相关。最后,二氧化碳边际减排成本的差异主要体现在省域之间而非省内县域之间,意味着超越省域范围的全国统一碳市场更加有助于实现成本有效的碳减排。本文认为,无论是命令控制型碳减排政策还是市场型碳减排政策,政策设计的关键均在于充分考虑二氧化碳边际减排成本在县域之间的异质性,充分利用县域二氧化碳边际减排成本的信息,因地制宜选择差异化减排政策并推动区域间协同化减排。

The clarification of the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide in China,s counties will help to accurately assess existing policies to reduce emissions in response to climate change and provide guidance for future policy optimization.This paper measures the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide in 1985 counties in China from 2008 to 2016 based on a quadratic directional output distance function,using a stochastic frontier approach,and on this basis provides a comprehensive analysis of the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide in counties from the perspectives of basic facts,influencing factors and decomposition of regional differences.Firstly,the average value of the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide in China's counties over the sample period is 1.66 thousand yuan per ton.In the time dimension,the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide tends to decrease and then increase.In the cross-sectional dimension,the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide is lower in the East than in the Midwest.Secondly,the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide depends not only on the scale effect of abatement represented by carbon intensity,but also closely related to the effect of industrial structure and technological innovation.Finally,the difference in marginal abatement cost is mainly between provinces rather than counties within provinces,which implies that a unified national carbon market that goes beyond provincial boundaries is more conducive to achieving cost effective carbon abatement.This paper suggests that the key to policy design for both command—and-control and market-based carbon reduction policies is to take full account of the heterogeneity of the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide across counties,and to make full use of information on the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide in counties to select differential emission reduction policies based on local conditions and promote inter-regional synergistic emissions reduction.