长三角地区人口结构驱动绿色创新的组态与路径研究

Research on the Configuration and Path of Green Innovation Driven by the Demographic Structure of the Yangtze River Delta Region:Based on fsQCA Configuration Analysis and NCA Necessity Analysis

以长三角41个城市为研究样本,基于第六、七次全国人口普查数据,依据人口经济理论,从人口的自然结构、区域空间结构和社会经济结构3个维度选取8个前因条件变量,运用fsQCA和NCA方法,探究实现城市高绿色创新的人口组态与路径。结果显示:单一人口结构指标均不构成城市高绿色创新的必要条件;实现城市高绿色创新存在5条路径,即全面提升驱动型、科教驱动型,城镇化-科技驱动型、城市集聚-科教驱动型和科教-老龄化驱动型;科技研发人口是所有组态的核心条件,对实现城市高绿色创新具有普适性作用;七普时,人口因素对城市绿色创新效应更大,且老龄化作用显化,组态和路径更丰富。

Taking 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region as the research sample,based on the last two national population censuses and the theory of population economy,this paper selects 8 antecedent conditional variables from three dimensions of population natural structure,regional spatial structure and socioeconomic structure.With the methods of fsQCA and NCA,the study explores the population configuration and path to realize urban high green innovation.The results show that a single demographic indicator is not an essential prerequisite of urban high-green innovation.Besides,there are five ways to realize urban high green innovation driven by overall improvement,science and education,technology of urbanization,urban agglomeration and aging.Moreover,scientific research personnel,as the core of all configurations,plays a universal role in promoting urban high green innovation.In the seventh national population census,with the effect of population on urban green innovation greater and the role of aging more obvious,the configuration and path are richer.