基于新型灰色模型预测中国LED照明市场规模

Prediction of Market Scale of the LED Based on GM(1,1,N)Model

运用GM(1,1,N)模型对LED照明市场规模进行预测,结果显示,模型的平均预测误差为1.6246%,比GM(1,1)模型的4.5094%和DGM(1,1)模型的4.6742%分别减少63.9730%和65.2433%。模型2021年的预测误差仅为-0.42674%,比GM(1,1)模型的-5.27132%和DGM(1,1)模型的5.70338%分别减少91.9045%和92.5178%。运用GM(1,1,N)模型对2022—2024年LED照明市场规模进行预测,表明LED照明市场规模仍将保持较高的增长速度。

The GM(1,1,N)model is used to forecast the scale of LED lighting market.The results show that the average prediction error of the model is 1.6246%,which is reduced by 63.9730%and 65.2433%compared with 4.5094%of the GM(1,1)model and 4.6742%of the DGM(1,1)model,respectively.The forecast error of the model in 2021 is only-0.42674%,which is91.9045%and 92.5178%lower than that of GM(1,1)model(-5.27132%)and DGM(1,1)model(5.70338%)respectively.GM(1,1,N)model is used to forecast the size of Chinese LED lighting market in 2022-2024,which indicates that the size of LED lighting market will maintain a high and steady growth rate.