1990-2019年中国膀胱癌发病率趋势

Incidence trend of bladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019:An age-period-cohort analysis

目的 分析我国居民1990-2019年膀胱癌的发病趋势,并探讨年龄、时期和出生队列因素对其的影响,为膀胱癌防治措施的制定提供科学依据。方法 使用GBD2019数据库中1990-2019年我国居民膀胱癌的发病数据建立数据库,利用Joinpoint回归模型,对我国居民膀胱癌发病趋势进行拟合,计算年度变化百分比(APC)及平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),并通过建立年龄-时期-队列模型探讨年龄、时期和出生队列效应对膀胱癌发病率的影响。结果 1990-2019年,我国居民膀胱癌的发病率男性呈上升趋势,女性呈下降趋势,且男性发病率高于女性。Joinpoint回归模型显示,膀胱癌总人群AAPC为1.54%(95%CI:1.32~1.76)、男性为1.85%(95%CI:1.59~2.11),女性为-0.09%(95%CI:-0.43~0.26)。年龄-时期-队列(age-period-cohort, APC)模型显示,膀胱癌的发病风险(RR)随年龄的增长和时期的推移而增加,但随着出生队列的增长而降低。结论 我国居民膀胱癌发病率呈上升趋势,防治工作需重点关注关男性及老年人群,以减轻膀胱癌疾病负担。

Objective To analyze the incidence trends of bladder cancer among residents in China from 1990 to 2019,and explore the influence of age,period and birth cohort factors on it,so as to provide scientific reference for the formulation of bladder cancer prevention measures.Methods The incidence data of bladder cancer among residents in China from 1990 to 2019 were downloaded from GBD2019 database,and the incidence trends of bladder cancer among residents in China city was fitted by joinpoint regression model.Annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC)were calculated,and the age-period-cohort model was established to explore the influence of age,period and birth cohort effect on the incidence of bladder cancer.Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence of bladder cancer increased in males and decreased in females,and the incidence of bladder cancer in males was higher than that in females.Joinpoint regression model showed that AAPC was 1.54%(95%CI:1.32~1.76)in total bladder cancer population,1.85%(95%CI:1.59~2.11)in males and-0.09%(95%CI:-0.43~0.26)in females.Age-period-cohort(APC)model showed that the risk of bladder cancer increased with age and time,but decreased with the increase of birth cohort.Conclusion The incidence of bladder cancer in China residents is on the rise,and the prevention and treatment work should focus on male and elderly people to reduce the burden of bladder cancer.