生态系统稳态转换检测研究进展

Research progress and prospect of ecosystem regime shifts detection

在气候变化、人类活动等影响下,生态系统结构和功能可能发生大规模的突变,导致生态系统从一个相对稳定的状态进入另一个稳定状态,这种现象称为稳态转换。由于生态系统的复杂性,准确刻画生态系统多稳态并界定其临界点尚存在挑战,提升对生态系统稳态转换的检测和预测能力依旧是生态学领域研究的热点和难题。基于多稳态理论和稳态转换经典概念框架,阐释了稳态转换检测的理论基础;归纳总结出四种稳态转换检测方法的原理和优劣势;鉴于稳态转换的尺度依赖性,梳理了单一生态系统、区域综合生态系统和全球生态系统不同尺度下的稳态转换检测方法、研究思路和应用案例。基于研究进展和问题现状,提出在未来研究中,亟待发展适应复杂系统的综合检测方法;创新稳态转换多尺度分析的技术方法体系;深化生态系统稳态转换驱动机制研究,构建多元耦合机理模型;进而深化稳态转换检测结果链接生态系统管理的实践研究;解析生态系统服务和可持续发展机制。

Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the structure and function of an ecosystem may change abruptly in a large scale.It leads an ecosystem to change from a relatively stable state to another stable state,a phenomenon known as the regime shifts.Because of the complexity of ecosystem,it is still a challenge to accurately characterize the alternative states of ecosystem and define its tipping point.In terms of that,improving the ability of detecting and predicting the regime shifts of ecosystem is still a hot topic and difficulty in the field of ecology.Based on the alternative states'theory and the classical concept frame of regime shift,this research explained the theoretical basis of regime shift detection.In view of the scale dependence,this paper summarized the detection methods and application cases of regime shift under different scales including single ecosystem,regional integrated ecosystem and global ecosystem.Based on the research progress,it is urgent to develop a comprehensive detection method to adapt to the complex system,innovate the scaling technique system,deepen the research of driving mechanism of regime shifts,gradually develop practice of ecosystem management,and further understand ecosystem services and sustainable development mechanisms.