2000—2018年内蒙古沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性演变及关键影响因素

Vulnerability evolution of the ecological-economic-social complex system and the key influencing factors in the sandy region of Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2018

在气候变化和人类活动共同影响下,沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统快速变化,为沙漠化治理及区域可持续发展带来了严峻的挑战。因此,揭示沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性演变规律,辨识影响脆弱性演化的关键因素及区域差异对沙区可持续管理具有重要意义。以内蒙古自治区为研究区,利用“暴露-敏感-适应”评估模型构建沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性评价指标体系,将空间主成分分析与时空地理加权回归模型相结合,探讨2000—2018年内蒙古“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性时空演变及关键因素作用机制。结果表明:(1)脆弱性及暴露度、敏感性和适应性三个维度在空间上均有较强的异质性特征,脆弱性具有整体分散、局部聚集的分布格局;暴露度的空间分布为中部高,两边低;敏感性的空间分布为西部高,东部低;适应性的高低值分布与脆弱性相反。(2)脆弱性的变化在总体上呈现大部分区域降低,局部区域升高的趋势,显著升高区域主要聚集在内蒙古南部地区。(3)影响脆弱性分布的因素在每年均有所不同,但总体上植被覆盖度、沙漠化程度、气象指数等生态指标是影响脆弱性显著变化区域的主要因素。

Under the combined effects of climate change and human activities,the rapidly change of the ecological-economic-social complex system in sandy areas poses serious challenges to desertification control and regional sustainable development.Therefore,it is of great significance to reveal the vulnerability evolution law of the ecological-economic-social complex system in sandy region,identify the key factors affecting the vulnerability evolution for the sustainable management of sandy region.In this paper,the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was taken as the research area,and the VSD(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram)model was used to construct the vulnerability assessment index system for the ecological-economic-social complex system.The spatial principal component analysis and spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model were combined to explore the spatio-temporal evolution of the vulnerability of the ecological-economic-social complex system and the influencing mechanisms of the key factors from 2000 to 2018.The results show that:(1)vulnerability,exposure,sensitivity and adaptability have strongly heterogeneous characteristics in space,and vulnerability has a distribution pattern of overall dispersion and local aggregation;the spatial distribution of exposure is high in the middle and low on both sides;the spatial distribution of sensitivity is high in the west and low in the east;the distribution of high and low values of adaptability is the opposite of vulnerability.(2)Vulnerability changes generally show a trend of decreasing in most regions and an increasing trend in some areas.The areas with vulnerability significantly increase mainly concentrated in the southern Inner Mongolia.(3)The factors that affect the distribution of vulnerability are different each year,but in general,ecological indicators such as vegetation cover,desertification degree and meteorological indices are the main factors that affect significant change in vulnerability.