非经济不确定性冲击的国内政策应对

Responses of Domestic Policies to the Non-economic Uncertainty Shocks

采用贝叶斯向量自回归模型评估全球不确定性冲击对国内宏观经济波动的影响,并分析增加货币供给和扩大央行资产规模两类货币政策、以及增加财政支出和减税两类财政政策应对外部冲击的效果。采用全球不确定性指数和全球流行病不确定性指数作为不确定性冲击的度量指标,并在模型中加入中国流行病不确定性指数作为外生变量。结果显示,全球不确定性对我国总需求造成较大负面冲击,国内货币与财政政策都做出了积极应对,并且扩张型财政政策还起到了降低全球不确定性的有益作用。货币政策主要通过投资渠道、财政政策主要通过投资和出口渠道作用于总需求,消费渠道拉动总需求的效果并未得到充分释放,未来宜将降低消费税和个人所得税作为宏观政策补短板的重点,以带动消费内循环。同时还需加强国际货币政策协调,预防政策不确定性对国内经济造成二次冲击。

Bayesian vector autoregressive model is used to evaluate the impact of global uncertainty shocks on domestic macroeconomic fluctuations.We also analyze the effects of monetary policies of increasing the money supply and expanding the size of central bank assets,and the effects of fiscal policies of increasing fiscal expenditure and reducing tax in response to external shocks.The global uncertainty index and the global epidemic uncertainty index are used as the measurement indicators of uncertainty shocks,and the Chinese epidemic uncertainty index is added to the model as an exogenous variable.The results show that global uncertainty has a great negative impact on China’s total demand,so domestic monetary and fiscal policies have made positive responses,and expansionary fiscal policies have also played a beneficial role in reducing global uncertainty.Monetary policies act on the total demand mainly through investment channels,and fiscal policies act on the total demand mainly through investment and export channels.The effect of consumption channels on the total demand has not been fully released.In the future,it is advisable to reduce the consumption tax and personal income tax as the focus of macro policies to make up for the shortcomings,so as to drive the internal cycle of consumption.At the same time,it is also necessary to strengthen the coordination of international monetary policies and prevent the second impact of policy uncertainty on the domestic economy.