基于GIPL2对阿拉斯加多年冻土不同深度地温的模拟研究

Simulation of Ground Temperature at Different Depths in Alaska based on GIPL2

准确模拟多年冻土地温变化,对深入了解多年冻土土壤温度变化特征、不同下垫面条件的土壤热物性以及对气候变化预测均有重要意义。运用GIPL2模型模拟阿拉斯加不同土壤类型地温,并对其实用性进行了评估。模拟结果表明:在土壤粒径较大的区域,用模型的默认参数可以模拟出土壤温度随季节变化的趋势,且在浅层的模拟值比深层更接近观测值,当深度超过0.5 m时模拟值与观测值存在较大的误差。在土壤质地复杂的区域由于土壤含水率等一系列参数对模型的影响,要准确模拟试验点的温度变化,需要可靠的观测数据。在同一地点安装气象站点和土壤参数传感器来监测多年冻土,可以为评估多年冻土热状况对气候持续变化的响应提供必要的数据。总体而言,当有足够的数据支撑时,GIPL2模型对土壤热状况的模拟精度较好,是一种模拟多年冻土区不同深度土壤热物性较为理想的模型。

The accurate simulation of permafrost ground temperature is of great significance for the in-depth understanding of permafrost soil temperat ure variation characteristics,the thermal effect of the un-derlying surface and the prediction of climate change.In this study,the GIPI2 model was used to simulate the soil thermal regime of different soil types in Alaska and its utility was evaluated.The simulation results show that the seasonal variation trend of soil temperature can be simulated with the default parameters of the model in the region with large soil particle size,and the simulated value in the shallow layer is closer to the observed value than the deep layer,and there is a large error between the simulated value and the observed value when the depth is more than 0.5 m.Due to the influence of a series of parameters such as soil moisture content on the model in the area with complex soil texture,reliable observation data are nec-essary to accurately simulate the temperature change of the test site.The installation of meteorological stations and soil parameter at sensors in the same sit to monitor permafrost can provide useful data to assess the response of permafrost thermal conditions to ongoing climate change.Taken together,with sufficient onsit data,the GIPI2 model has a good simulat ion accuracy for soil thermal condition,and is an ideal model for simulating soil thermal condition of active layer in permafrost region.