双重不确定条件下制造商研发投资决策研究

Research on the R&D investment decision of manufacturer under dual uncertainty

为研究不确定性对企业价值及项目研发投资时机的影响,将核心技术是否共享和产品质量双重不确定置于研究框架之中,构建了制造商和技术企业的两阶段合作模型,从实物期权的角度将不确定因素分别刻画为泊松跳跃过程和几何布朗运动来分析对合作企业投资研发决策的影响。研究表明:技术企业允许核心技术共享可能性的降低会直接影响合作企业的期权价值;产品质量水平的期望增长率和波动率与研发投资临界值分别呈负相关和正相关的关系,一定程度上增加了合作企业投资决策的难度。

To investigate the impact of uncertainty on the corporate value and the research and develop-ment(R&D)investment timing,a two stage cooperation model for the manufacturer and technology enter-prise was constructed by considering the dual uncertainty of the core technology sharing and the level of product quality in the framework of the study.The uncertainty factors are described as the Poisson jump process and geometric Brownian motion to analyze the impact on the investment decision of cooperative enterprises,respectively.The study shows that the possibility of core technology sharing by the corporate headquarter directly affects the option value of the cooperative enterprise.The expected growth rate and volatility of product quality level are negatively and positively correlated with the investment threshold,which to a certain extent increases the difficulty of the investment decisions by the company.