基于组合赋权的装配式建筑风险因素研究

Study on Life Cycle Risk Factors of Prefabricated Buildings Based on Combination Weighting

装配式建筑在技术、质量、功能、工期上都有了更高追求,所面临的风险比传统现浇建筑更加严峻。为了规避和降低风险,在文献研究的基础上,通过半结构化访谈识别出覆盖决策、设计、生产运输、施工吊装、运营阶段的24个风险因素,构建装配式建筑全寿命周期风险因素指标体系。结合指标体系采用主、客观相耦合的定权方法AHP-熵权法对某项目进行案例分析,研究表明各阶段的关键风险因素分别为市场需求预估不准确、设计未考虑全生命周期的可行性、构件混凝土强度不足、工业化、机械化施工吊装水平较低和运营效果不稳定,并针对关键风险因素提出风险防控措施。

Prefabricated buildings have higher pursuit in technology,quality,function and time limit,and face more severe risks than traditional cast in place buildings.In order to avoid and reduce risks,this paper identifies 24 risk factors covering decision making,design,production and transportation,construction and lifting,and operation stages through semi-structured interviews on the basis of literature research,and builds a risk factor index system for the whole life cycle of prefabricated buildings.Combining with index system USES the combination of subjective and objective coupling weighting method of AHP and entropy weight method of case analysis of a project is carried out to study the key risk factors.The results show that the factors in different stages include inaccurate forecast of the market demand forecast,lack of considering the feasibility of whole life cycle design,insufficient component concrete strength,the low level of industrialization,unstable mechanization construction hoisting and operation effect.Risk prevention and control measures are accordingly put forward for key risk factors.