金融发展、需求侧市场变迁与贸易收支

Financial Development, Demand-side Market Change and Trade Balance

基于金融发展视角从需求侧探究金融发展通过需求侧市场结构变迁作用于贸易收支的运行机理,选取2000-2018年省际面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现:金融发展会显著收窄贸易顺差,不同自然资源禀赋、地理区域、人均GDP以及金融危机和汇率改革的前后,金融发展对贸易收支的影响均存在异质性。进一步研究发现,金融发展规模通过需求侧市场结构变迁作用于贸易收支,而金融结构则没有此中介效应。研究结果为立足国内大循环,协同推进强大国内市场和贸易强国建设提供了政策启示。

Based on the perspective of financial development,this paper explores the operating mechanism of the effect of financial development on trade balance through the change of market structure on the demand side,and empirically tests the inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018.The results show that financial development significantly reduces trade surplus,and the impact of financial development on trade balance is heterogeneous among different natural resource endowments,geographical regions,per capital GDP,and before and after the financial crisis and exchange rate reform.Further research shows that financial size has an effect on trade balance through consumption market structure,while financial structure has no such intermediary effect.The research provides policy inspiration for promoting the construction of a strong domestic market and trade power based on the domestic cycling.