数字普惠金融发展对农民收入影响的时空分异与收敛性分析

Spatio-temporal variation and convergence analysis of the impact of digital inclusive finance development on farmers income

金融体系的运作与农民生产生活息息相关,通过剖析数字普惠金融发展对农民收入的具体影响,为有针对性地制定助农增收策略提供更为准确、可靠的实证依据。基于我国2011—2020年30个省域的面板数据,分别构建面板时空地理加权回归模型与空间收敛模型分析数字普惠金融对农民收入影响的时空分异与收敛特征。研究表明:数字普惠金融发展对农民收入具有显著的积极影响,且影响表现出显著的时空分异特征,不同地区、不同时期的数字普惠金融增收效应存在差异,其系数估计最小值为0.268,最大值为0.633。以新疆为代表的西部偏远地区的数字普惠金融增收效应不断增强,各地区整体差异在快速缩小。空间收敛模型中β绝对收敛与β条件收敛系数估计值分别为-0.165、-0.158,且均为负数,表明数字普惠金融增收效应符合空间收敛特征。数字普惠金融可有效改善传统金融发展的非均衡性,同时可为西部偏远地区农民增收提供赶超渠道,进一步减少农民内部收入不平等现象。

The operation of the financial system is closely related to the production and life of farmers.By analyzing the specific impact of the development of digital inclusive finance on farmers income,more accurate and reliable empirical evidence can be provided for the targeted formulation of strategies to increase farmers income.Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020,the geographic and temporally weighted regression model for panel data(PGTWR)and spatial convergence model were constructed to analyze the spatio-temporal differences and convergence characteristics of the impact of digital financial inclusion on farmers income.As the results indicated that the development of digital financial inclusion exerted a significant positive impact on farmers income,which featured remarkable spatial and temporal variation.There were differences in the income enhancement effects of digital financial inclusion in different regions and periods,the minimum coefficient was estimated to be 0.268 and the maximum was 0.633.With the growing income enhancement effects of digital financial inclusion in remote western regions represented by Xinjiang,the regional differences narrowed rapidly.In the spatial convergence model,the estimatedβabsolute convergence andβconditional convergence coefficients were-0.165 and-0.158,respectively,and both were negative,indicating that the increased effect of digital financial inclusion conformed to the spatial convergence characteristics.Digital financial inclusion effectively improved the unevenness in the development of traditional finance,provided a catch-up channel for farmers in remote western regions to increase their income,and thus alleviated the income inequality within farmers.