成都市2010—2020年土地利用变化及驱动因子分析

Analysis of land use change and driving factors in Chengdu from 2010 to 2020

本文对成都市2010—2020年土地利用变化分类结果进行定量分析,并对变化部分进行驱动因子分析,旨在得出成都市10年间土地利用变化与影响变化的主要驱动因子,为后续城市发展规划提供一定参考价值。首先,选取2010年、2015年、2020年内7月、8月、9月云量少于15%的遥感影像使用随机森林法对成都市进行土地利用分类,并使用Open Street Map矢量数据对分类影像进行补强,最终分类精度的kappa系数与总体精度均超过0.8。然后,针对土地利用变化数据进行土地利用变化分析,并运用主成分分析法对7个驱动因子进行分析。结果表明,从2010年到2020年成都市土地利用变化以建设用地增加、耕地减少为主,主要驱动因子为人口与经济,城市从单一发展变为均衡发展。

This paper makes a quantitative research of land use change in Chengdu from 2010 to 2020 so as to find the change mode and the main driving factors behind it.The research selects remote sensing images taken on days with less than 15%cloud cover in July,August,and September in 2010,2015,and 2020,and uses random forest method to classify land use in Chengdu.The classified images are reinforced with Open Street Map vector data.As a result,both the kappa coefficient of the final classification accuracy and the overall accuracy exceed 0.8.Then,the land use change data and 7 driving factors are analyzed with the method of principal component analysis.The results show that from 2010 to 2020,the land use change in Chengdu is featured by the increase of construction land and the decrease of cultivated land.The main driving factors are population and economy,and the city has shifted from single-mode development to a balanced one.