京津冀工业绿色发展及其障碍因素的时空格局分析

Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of Industrial Green Developmentand Its Obstacle Factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

参考权威评价指标体系,基于资源、环境与经济协调的绿色发展内涵构建工业绿色发展指标体系,兼顾主观与客观,综合运用AHP和引入时间变量的改进熵权法计算权重;在此基础上,设置分级标准,结合未确知模型和改进障碍度模型,对2012~2018年京津冀工业绿色发展的相对水平、绝对水平以及障碍因素的障碍度进行测度并总结时间变化趋势,进而引入时间加权向量描述空间格局。结果发现:(1)京津冀工业绿色发展水平呈逐年上升趋势,已达到C1级别;排名靠前的城市大多位于京津附近的“心房”区域,排名靠后的主要位于主动脉的“心底”区域;处于较高等级的城市均位于京津附近“心脏”的中心位置,等级较低的城市位于“心尖”和“心底”的位置。(2)科研投入强度、单位GDP电耗、单位工业增加值能耗、外向性为京津冀13市总体工业绿色发展的重点障碍因子;且其障碍度均呈不断上升趋势。

The greening of the industry is the core of the green development of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,and also the main carrier to promote the construction of ecological civilization,of which the green development of the industry is the top priority.To recognize the current situation of industrial green development in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,and identify the obstacle factors,it is necessary to make a scientific and reasonable measurement of industrial green development in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,which can promote the systematization and standardization of industrial green development measurement,and also provide a theoretical basis for different regions to tailor their policies and measures for industrial green development.However,the concept of“green development”has not been explicitly introduced in the international academic community,and since Pearce first proposed the“green economy”in 1989,the focus has been on ecosystems,economic-ecological systems,and economic-ecological-social systems.The measurement of green development has also emerged in three ways:First,using a single indicator to characterize.Second,incorporating resources and environment into the production function,and calculating green total factor productivity by treating pollution emissions as non-desired output.Although the research has made great progress,it still holds the view of weak sustainability.Third,as the research progresses,the construction of a comprehensive index system for green development becomes an accepted approach.On this basis,current research has examined the relationship among green development and environmental regulation,technological innovation,capital,labor,energy,industrial structure,FDI,urbanization level,and investment in education,mainly using econometric methods,with more and more attention being paid to the industry and regional differences of the influencing factors.Although more authoritative green development index systems have been constructed in the literature,they are mostly evaluated at relative levels and lack absolute levels.And there are few targeted studies on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,a major national strategic development region,and industry,an important sector,in terms of research objects.Although the barrier factors can be extracted by analyzing the temporal trend of green development level or regional variability,and the barrier factors can also be summarized by identifying the influence direction,influence effect and significance of the influencing factors,the existing studies have less analysis of the contribution degree of the barrier factors,ignoring the dynamic and spatial variability of the barrier factors and their barrier degree.Therefore,this paper refers to the authoritative evaluation index system and constructs the industrial green development index system based on the connotation of green development of resource,environment and economic coordination.Taking into account both subjective and objective methods,the weights are calculated using AHP and the improved entropy weighting method that introduces time variables.On this basis,grading criteria are set,and the relative level and absolute level of industrial green development in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei from 2012 to 2018,as well as the barrier degree of barrier factors,are measured and temporal trends are summarized by combining the unconfirmed model and the improved barrier degree model,and a time-weighted vector is further introduced to describe the spatial pattern.The results show that:First,the level of industrial green development in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is rising year by year and has reached C1 level;most of the top-ranked cities are located in the“atrium”area near Beijing and Tianjin,while the bottom-ranked ones are mainly located in the“bottom of the heart”area of the aorta;the cities in higher grades are located in the center of the“heart”near Beijing and Tianjin,while the lower-ranked cities are located in the“tip”and“bottom”of the heart.Second,research input intensity,electricity consumption per unit of GDP,energy consumption per unit of industrial value-added,and outward orientation are the key obstacle factors for the overall industrial green development of 13 cities in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei;and their obstacle degrees are all on an increasing trend.