北极航道贸易潜力的时空分布分析

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Trade Potential of Arctic Passage

考虑海冰年际变化对北极航道贸易潜力的影响,用航运时间替代航运距离对贸易引力模型进行拓展,采用“多国模型”量化评估了16个北极航道贸易利益相关国贸易潜力的时空分布趋势。结果表明:(1)航行时间每缩短1%,各国之间进出口贸易总额将提升0.512%,冰况越恶劣,贸易潜力提升越低;(2)时间分布趋势上,1991-2019年各国平均贸易潜力因冰情波动呈现先小幅上升,后小幅下降,再不断上升的趋势,并预计到2050年北极航道完全开通时达到最大;(3)空间分布上,东亚近北极国与西欧近北极国、北极航道沿线国的双边贸易潜力提升较大,最高可提升27.06%,传统航道沿线国贸易潜力提升不明显。

Considering the influence of sea ice interannual variation on trade potential of Arctic Passage,the trade gravity model is expanded by replacing shipping distance with shipping time,and the spatial-temporal distribution trend of trade potential of 16 Arctic Passage trade stakeholders are quantitatively evaluated by using"multinational model".The results show that:(1)For every 1%reduction of sailing time,the total import and export trade between countries will increase by 0.512%,and the worse the ice condition,the lower the trade potential;(2)In terms of time distribution trend,the average trade potential of each country first increases slightly due to the fluctuation of ice condition from 1991 to 1999,and then decreases slightly,and shows no significant change with the continuous melting of sea ice from 1999 to 2019;(3)In terms of spatial distribution,the bilateral trade potential of East Asian near Arctic countries,Western European near Arctic countries and countries along the Arctic Passage has increased by 27.06%,and the trade potential of countries along the traditional channel has not increased.